What Will Get Better in 2021 (and What Won't)
What Will Get Better in 2021 (and What Won't)
2020 is actually ending!
Welcome to the final big Sunday edition of Progressives Everywhere of 2020! No joke, this toxic airborne event of a year is but a fleeting moment in time, and things will get better — if we work for it.
We’ve focused so hard on overcoming the terrors right in front of our faces this year that it’s been hard to look more than a few days into the future at any given moment. So in this issue, I’m going to be running down some of the significant laws and policies that will be enacted and political debates that will likely make waves in 2021.
Previewing 2021
While the vaccines have begun to roll out, the COVID-19 pandemic will still shape much of what state lawmakers do this year, whether directly or indirectly. The “stimulus” plan — still unsigned at the moment — did not include any money for state and local governments, while healthcare systems are devastated, local economies are busted, tax revenues have plunged, and remote schooling has underlined the vast inequalities in education.
The fact that we may not reach herd immunity until the fall means that many of these issues will only continue to fester and get worse. With that in mind, in this issue, I’ll focus on healthcare and issues facing workers, as well as GOP legislators’ ongoing efforts to destroy the democratic avenues through which many progressive policies have been won.
Healthcare
First, let’s start with the good news: Medicaid will be expanded in Oklahoma and Missouri thanks to voter-approved ballot initiatives. Unfortunately, both states are controlled by Republicans who are fundamentally opposed to helping working people, so they have already begun plotting out how they can limit access to healthcare while enriching private insurers and providers.
Missouri legislators are plotting what kind of limitations they can pull off using budget shenanigans, while Oklahoma is already focused on privatizing the implementation and delivery of Medicaid. Further, Georgia got a waiver from the federal government in October to implement its own limited, means-tested version of Medicaid that includes work requirements and cost-sharing. Indiana’s Medicaid “alternative” was granted a 10-year extension this fall.
The Biden administration will — we can only hope — refuse to offer waivers to limit Medicaid and healthcare programs meant to benefit the most vulnerable and needy Americans. Instead, it should be working with states to expand access, including those states that are taking more ambitious tacts.
In 2019, a public option expansion failed in Connecticut due to attacks from the insurance industry that dominate the state, while it never got off the ground at all in 2020 thanks to the COVID pandemic. But Democrats who control the state government are looking to revive it in 2021. The basic idea is to open up a public plan to individuals while allowing small businesses, unions, and nonprofits to join the plan used by municipal governments.
It would have allowed re-importation of drugs from Canada and been partially financed by a small tax on opioid manufacturers, which seems like the least of the penalties they should suffer.
With a new supermajority in the state legislature and Gov. Andrew Cuomo entering his final two years in office, New York Democrats have been making more and more noise about starting a single-payer system there, too.
In California, there will be a flurry of healthcare bills this coming year. For one, the legislature wants to expand the full range of benefits of the state healthcare system, Medi-Cal, to people regardless of their age or race.
Unfortunately, because Democrats whiffed on flipping any Republican-held legislatures, it’s unlikely that we’ll see Medicaid expansion in North Carolina or Wisconsin despite the party holding the governor’s mansion in each state.
At the same time, President-elect Biden could follow through on his promise to create a public option under the ACA… if Democrats can win both Senate runoffs in Georgia next week. The stakes couldn’t be higher in those elections now that even the sad quarter-loaf stimulus has stalled and it’s clear that Republicans in the Senate won’t agree to any further help for tens of millions of struggling Americans.
And just remember…
Jobs and the Economy
We’ll start again with the good news: Despite more than a decade of federal inaction, the minimum wage will increase in more than two dozen states and several cities. Most of these increases are far less than a dollar, with the $2.25 jump in Virginia that happens in May a significant outlier.
On the bright side, many of the upward ticks are parts of automated annual increases that will eventually bring the minimum wage to either $12 or $15 and then index it with inflation. Such is the case in Florida, where the rate will increase from $8.65 to $10 at the end of September 2021 thanks to a successful ballot initiative this November (no thanks to Democratic inaction).
On the flip side, Democrats in Virginia used their long-awaited seizure of complete control of the state government to pass a flurry of pro-worker laws in 2020 (thankfully, they got to work early). Many of them were simply a matter of catching up with the rest of the country — the state was rated the absolute worst for workers in 2018 by Oxfam, which is pretty remarkable considering the poverty in the Deep South. One of the big debates this year will be about overturning the scourge that is “right to work” in the state.
Workers in several states will also gain access to guaranteed paid sick leave thanks to a mix of ballot initiatives and legislative victories. States include New York, New Jersey, Maine, Massachusetts, and an expanded number of people in California. An initiative that passed in Colorado this fall will begin guaranteeing paid sick leave in 2024.
The Georgia elections will also help determine whether Democrats are able to secure stimulus bailouts for the states and cities that are veering on the edge of insolvency and at risk of having to lay off millions of workers. And unfortunately, it’s going to be teachers and essential workers who get the boot even in Democratic-controlled places — just look at what is going down in Los Angeles.
Legalizing Cannabis
There are two issues that unite Americans across party lines: Legalizing cannabis and the suspicion that Jeffrey Epstein didn’t kill himself. Let’s focus on the former, shall we?
Voters in three states (Arizona, Montana, and South Dakota) sprung to legalize recreational marijuana in ballot initiatives this year, while the state legislature green-lit fun-time cannabis in New Jersey. In Mississippi, voters approved medical marijuana for 2021.
There will be a number of states that could join the legal marijuana train in 2021, in part because it could provide a big boost in badly-needed tax revenue. Progressives and Gov. Cuomo alike are pushing to legalize recreational weed in New York, while legislators in Rhode Island are formulating plans for legalization. The big question there is whether it’ll be implemented through private sales or a state-run plan.
Interestingly, it’s Gov. Gina Raimondo, who loves privatizing things, who is in favor of a state-run plan, while legislative leaders want private sales. Rhode Island’s legislative Democrats are very conservative — they weren’t even in favor of legalization last year.
In Kentucky, Gov. Andy Beshear called on the legislature to make the state a lot more fun by approving sports betting and legalizing medical marijuana. And in Florida, an activist group is already collecting signatures to put marijuana legalization up to voters in a ballot initiative in 2022. State officials, aware that progressive initiatives generally win, are trying to have Make It Legal’s ballot petitions thrown out by a judge. Interestingly, trollish Rep. Matt Gaetz is actually publicly advocating for legalization, having been a force behind a medical marijuana campaign in 2014.
Meanwhile, Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman has been yelling about legalization from the rooftops. The state’s GOP legislature is pretty conservative, but Gov. Tom Wolf is behind it and perhaps Republicans will try to co-opt its popularity.
Legal Shenanigans
Angry that voters are trending towards Democrats and progressive policies, the conservatives in Arizona are now talking about eviscerating the ballot initiative process. The Chamber of Commerce, stung by voters in Barry Goldwater’s home state approving a tax increase on business, just released a report that calls for all kinds of measures meant to make direct democracy much more difficult:
They suggest raising the number of required signatures for a proposition to make it to the ballot or requiring a certain number of signatures come from each legislative or congressional district and then increase the number of votes to enact the measure. They say the state should also consider a “single-subject rule” that would bar sweeping omnibus propositions that would allow for a less-popular measure to take effect when it wouldn’t survive on its own merits.
Republicans in Arizona will likely try to take them up, though they do seem to have other concerns right now.
In Georgia, the ongoing far-right conspiracy-driven hissyfit over Joe Biden’s narrow win in the state has Republicans looking for ways to further limit voting rights. In a state where nearly a million (disproportionately POC) voters have been purged from the rolls over the last decade, the GOP is now discussing ending no-excuse absentee balloting (a suggestion by under-fire Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger) and trying to limit drop box hours during the runoff election. Thankfully, a judge nixed the latter, but the legislature could take action on that in 2021.
None of this is a surprise — after ballot initiatives succeeded in red states, the Republican-led legislatures in many of those places enacted rules that made initiatives harder to qualify. Many initiatives were abandoned anyway in 2020 due to activists’ inability to gather in-person signatures (Colorado’s Supreme Court rejected digital petition signatures), so we’ll see how big of an impact these obstacles create in 2022.
Real Quick…
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Quibis
Unemployment benefits ran out for millions of Americans this weekend and the eviction moratorium is set to expire on New Year’s Day. Right now Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress are engaged in a stare-down to determine who is less excited about letting working people across the country slide into further devastation.
Trump won’t sign the awful stimulus deal and Republicans refuse to agree to make it any better. Democrats, meanwhile, are tweeting about how bad both sides stink while not pushing Republicans (especially Georgia Sens. Loeffler and Purdue!) into a corner with a vote on $2000 stimulus checks. Simply put, Republicans are too drunk with power and Democrats don’t really seem that interested in using what they little they have or attaining more of it.
Turnout in the Georgia runoff elections has surpassed two million voters with over a week to go before Election Day. A holiday weekend slowdown has taken them off the pace of the general election, but perhaps we’ll see a surge this week. And not to jinx it, but demographic trends are looking somewhat positive for Democrats, including amongst newly registered voters.
A retooled NLRB and OSHA under Biden will have a lot on its plate, with the working conditions in big factories, warehouses, and some healthcare facilities in the age of COVID-19 have been an absolute scandal. This story about the failures in one such warehouse — and the government’s failure to respond — is enraging.
Lawrence Summers is a sociopath, keep him far away from any sort of relevance.
Good news on regulations!
Important to remember: nothing fundamentally will change.
Wait, Before You Go!
As we close out a very wild 2020, I just wanted to thank you for your support and readership. Together we’ve raised over $5.7 million for Democratic candidates and progressive causes over the last three years, including $1.5 million for bail funds and civil rights groups this summer.
In 2020, we helped elect progressive Democrats to Congress and state legislatures. We built websites to highlight COVID failures and help people find their voting information. And we’ve continued to push the Democratic Party to be better and more accountable.
Not everything broke our way this year, but progress takes a long time to realize. In 2021, I’ll be focusing a lot of energy on supporting the incredible organizers that make progress and change possible. We will amplify their voices and make sure they have the resources they need to get their crucial work done. I’ll also continue focusing on state politics and progressive policy battles, which will include more interviews with experts, lawmakers, and journalists.
Like tens of millions of other Americans, I lost my full-time job in 2020. I work as a freelancer now, which has been equal parts exhilarating and exhausting — I’ve been published in leading news outlets, made increased media appearances, and expanded into consulting. I’d love to make Progressives Everywhere as near a full-time job as possible, but I can only do so with your support.
I’m offering very low-cost premium subscriptions that offer a lot of goodies. If you become a member of Progressives Everywhere, you’ll get exclusive newsletters and updates, premium posts, and involvement in the development of a new breed of progressive media and activism that speaks to people in ways that so many Democrats cannot.
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