Americans are turning on Trump. Can Democrats earn their trust?

Bad poll numbers only tell half the story

Welcome to a Monday edition of Progress Report.

We’ll take a quick spin through public opinion ahead of what could and should be a dramatic Election Day on Tuesday. As a New Yorker, I have my eyes on the mayoral race here, but I’m also very eager to see what goes down in New Jersey, where demographic and cultural shifts are upending the state’s politics. On Tuesday we’ll take a step toward understanding what makes for a successful Democratic campaign — or at least have more data points to argue over.

This weekend I met up with a friend who came in from Chicago to volunteer for Zohran Mamdani’s campaign. It wasn’t a case of a wealthy DSA grad student with frequent flyer miles to kill either; my buddy is a former Teamster who was just so excited by Mamdani’s campaign and the possibilities it represents that he just had to come east and help seal the deal. It’s rare to find a Democrat who inspires that kind of dedication, and the party would be smart to study that alchemy, not try to bury it.

Note: The far-right’s fascist takeover of this country is being aided by the media’s total capitulation to Trump’s extortion. It’s never been more critical to have a bold independent media willing to speak up against the powerful. That’s what I’m trying to do here at Progress Report.

For a limited time, I’m offering 40% off a paid subscription, so you can help keep Progress Report afloat for just $3.00 a month — every subscription really, really matters!

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Americans are not happy with the direction of the country right now, according to a slew of new polls, but whether they trust Democrats to fix things is very much an open question.

NBC News found that just 37% of Americans think the country is headed in the right direction, while 61% of respondents said that the nation is on the wrong track. The divide was even starker in ABC News’s poll, which had a 32-67% split. And CNN’s latest clocked 68% of voters unhappy with the direction of the country.

Both polls also found Donald Trump’s approval rating in rough shape; NBC had him with a 43-55% split, while ABC clocked a 41-59% divide. CNN has Trump at his lowest point of this second term, at 37% approval.

Trump is underwater on every major issue, ABC News found, including record-low approval for his stewardship of the economy: President Deals is at 37-62% on the overall economy and a miserable 33-62% on his handling of tariffs. CNN once again has an even bleaker picture, with 72% dissatisfaction with his economic performance.

Per ABC, immigration (43-56%) and crime (44-55%), Trump’s two strongest categories, are nonetheless net negatives for him.

All three polls find voters leaning toward supporting Democrats in next year’s midterm elections. NBC’s poll is far rosier, with Democrats up 50-42% over the GOP, compared to a slim 46-44% lead in ABC’s survey. CNN is in the middle, with Democrats holding a 47-42% lead.

Either way, Democrats’ advantage does not reflect any great confidence in the party: NBC found that a record-low 28% of voters have a positive opinion of Democrats, while ABC discovered just 30% of respondents think that Democrats are in touch with the needs of most Americans. By comparison, 36% of people think Trump is in touch with the average American and 37% believe the same of the GOP writ large.

Why are Americans so down on Democrats? I’ve reported countless stories over past few years exploring that question and the multitude of answers, largely in an attempt to understand what can be done to turn it around. New election and polling data underscores the ultimate solution: give people something to vote for.

Though Democrats are the party that is ostensibly opposed to abusive corporate power and economic inequality, they have spent the past 35 years helping to oversee the vast destabilization of the American middle class. Democrats have also spent the last decade as defenders of the status quo, yearning for a return to “normalcy,” and as material conditions have worsened for people, it has created the impression that they are overseeing the decline.

As such, it’s no surprise that Democrats are polling so abysmally at the same time that people are coming to the grimmest conclusions about this country and its future. According to Politico’s latest poll, nearly 46% no longer believe in the American Dream, while just a quarter still think it’s possible to achieve sustained success and financial independence through hard work.

The despair is particularly acute among young people, a clear majority of whom think that the American Dream is dead.

The numbers are remarkable: more than 55% of people under the age of 45 believe that the American Dream is no longer achievable, a disaffection that has fueled a deep desire for a fundamental reordering of society. A majority of Americans under the age of 65 want to see “radical change” from their government, including a remarkable 64% of respondents ages 18-24.

So what does that look like? Right now, it looks like New York Assemblyman and mayoral frontrunner Zohran Mamdani, whose hopeful campaign has turned cynics into civic enthusiasts.

Mamdani’s core campaign messages have addressed some of the most fundamental issues facing disaffected young people, and his proposed solutions would help begin a societal shift that would vastly improve their material conditions. And in exchange, the demographic that unexpectedly shifted right in 2024 not only helped lift him to an unexpected primary victory, but turned out in record numbers during the general election early voting despite months of relentless attacks from establishment Democrats.

Early voting quadruped the 2021 edition and hit two-thirds of last year’s presidential election, indicating unprecedented enthusiasm for this election. I’ll have more analysis when the final numbers are available. It won’t just be a question of youth turnout, either; perhaps even more telling will be whether this kind of campaign can help reverse the stark rightward shift of working class ethnic enclaves.

Nobody will argue that Mamdani’s precise recipe will work for Democrats everywhere; campaigns should always go local for many of their ingredients. But what’s clear is that Trump is wobbling, people are deeply dissatisfied with the status quo, and the only way to take advantage of this opening is to give people reason to believe that changing leadership again won’t simply be a reversion back to a sunnier sheen on the same miserable fight for survival.

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