Analyzing every Democratic primary challenger (thus far)

Real challenges to the gerontocracy are on the way

Welcome to a Wednesday edition of Progress Report.

It’s only June and already a dozen Democratic members of Congress are facing serious primary challenges (and sometimes from more than one candidate). Most of those Democratic incumbents are well past the traditional retirement age, while others have angered their constituents with lackluster representation and opposition to Donald Trump’s reign of terror. In some cases, both criticisms apply.

Today we’re diving into each of those races, examining both the incumbent Democrats and their challengers. I’ve been outspoken in my belief that a whole lot of the Democratic caucus deserves to be regularly challenged, forcing them to pay close attention to constituents and answer for their decisions, and that applies to many of those incumbents listed below. At the same time, inclusion here doesn’t indicate endorsement — some of the lawmakers are less troublesome, while there are likely to be additional challengers in some of the other races.

This is without question just the beginning of the Democratic Party’s primary upheaval, and I suspect that I’ll be writing sequels to this piece for much of 2025.

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Adam Smith (WA-9)

Age in 2026: 61
Terms Served: 15

The Situation: First elected to Congress when Bill Clinton won re-election, Smith is a centrist who loves to scold progressives and dabble with far-right hate-mongers: He voted to censure Rep. Al Green for his defense of Medicaid patients during Trump’s State of the Union speech; regularly bashes young people (calling anti-war protestors “leftwing fascists”) and what he calls their focus on identity politics; and is a fan of smug bigot Christopher Rufo, who he met with after reading his book.

Smith grew up working class and paid his way through college with a job at UPS (back when paying your way through college was feasible), and still emphasizes his blue collar background. As ranking member of the Armed Services Committee, he’s been largely protective of Israel during the ongoing war on Gaza (he received more than $330k from pro-Israel PACs last cycle) and frequently has his office picketed over the issue.

Challenger(s): Kshama Sawant is a socialist who served for a decade on the Seattle City Council before declining to run again in 2023. She declared her candidacy on Monday with a typically fierce shot across the bow, calling Smith a “warmonger” and promising to be a fiercely independent voice for district. Because Washington has a top-two primary, she can run as an independent and wind up facing Smith in the general election.

She was a lightning rod during her time in office, racking up wins (including a $15 minimum wage, a tax on big employers, and a renters’ bill of rights) as well as controversies (sued for defamation for calling a landlord a “slumlord,” ignoring Covid protocol for a protest) and narrowly avoided losing a recall election in 2021. She would be without question the most far-left member of Congress, but she’s running in a district that’s more progressive than Smith’s record.

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Steny Hoyer (MD-5)

Age in 2026: 87
Terms Served: 23

The Situation: The former House Majority Leader gave up his position in the official Democratic hierarchy in 2023 but seems committed to holding on to his seat until the very end; he suffered a stroke last August and would be 89-years-old at the end of his next term.

Hoyer easily survived several primary challenges from a community organizer named Mckayla Wilkes, who got as high as 26.7% of the vote in 2020. But that was before the long-overdue reckoning with the Democratic gerontocracy that’s currently transpiring, and Hoyer is no longer the party’s second in command. While he hasn’t officially announced his run for re-election, he also hasn’t given any indication that he’s packing it in.

Challenger(s): Harry Jarin is doing what most of the Democratic challengers on this list will not, eschewing awkward allusions to generational change and just making Hoyer’s advanced age a central part of his campaign argument. Jarin, 35, is a volunteer firefighter and emergency services consultant who says it’s time to reckon with the gerontocracy and its direct impact on Democrats’ electoral fate.

“Six members of Congress have died in the last 16 months, and all of them were Democrats over age 65. So, I mean, I don’t see how you can look at the situation and not say, ‘Hey, we have a serious problem,’” Jarin told The Hill. “I’m not putting down any of these people or the work that they’ve done. But we have to be realistic.”

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David Scott (GA-13)

Age in 2026: 81
Terms Served: 12

The Situation: Scott made headlines when he snapped at a photographer and called him an “asshole” for taking his photo while he was being pushed in his wheelchair outside the Capitol. More than a temper tantrum, it was another affirmation of Scott’s steep cognitive decline; in February, Politico reported that he was reading from scripts during private conversations and losing track of party policy.

He won re-election in his heavily Democratic district last year after triumphing in an overly crowded primary, but he was forced to give up his role as the ranking member of the Agriculture Committee. With the focus on the gerontocracy and questions about his health, Scott may not get off so easy if he runs again.

Challenger(s): This will once again be a crowded primary, though this time there will be some top-tier talent involved. State Sen. Emanuel Jones will be 67-years-old on election day, so he can’t quite make the generational change argument, but there are two other challengers who will be doing just that: Everton Blair (34), a Harvard phD and former member of the Gwinnett County Board of Education, and state Rep. Jasmine Clark (42), a microbiologist announced her candidacy on Monday.

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Shri Thanedar (MI-13)

Age in 2026: 71
Terms Served: Two

The Situation: Born and raised in India, Thanedar moved to the United States to pursue a doctorate at the University of Akron and made his fortune in chemicals and pharmaceuticals (his record on animal care is far spottier).

His political ambitions came later in life: Thanedar was a John McCain donor who waffled on his party before running for governor in 2018, only to come in third place after spending millions on his campaign in the Democratic primary. Then it was on to the Michigan legislature for a term before shrewdly picking up an open Congressional seat representing Detroit in 2022. Each of his races has largely been paid for out of his own personal wealth.

Thanedar was once a member of DSA but renounced it in 2023 in protest of the group’s early objections to Israel’s war in Gaza; he may have been booted soon anyway over his support for right-wing Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He also got blasted by Democratic colleagues over a recent attempt to force a vote on impeaching Donald Trump, which was pretty revealing and bleakly funny.

Challenger(s): There are two Democrats challenging Thanedar: former state Sen. Adam Hollier (39), whose primary challenge last year was waylaid by a petition scandal, and state Rep. Donavan McKinney (32). McKinney has come out swinging with an economic populist message based on a child spent in poverty that matches what constituents in one of the nation’s poorest Congressional districts are experiencing.

McKinney came out hard against the Democrats’ decision to scale back the state’s minimum wage increase over the winter and had some pretty pointed words for Thanedar — who he called “Detroit’s own Elon Musk” — when he announced his candidacy.

“I’m not running because I’m a millionaire. I’m running because I’m not. I’m running because our community deserves to be able to sleep at night knowing they have a Representative in Congress who truly knows their struggles and truly fights for them every single day,” McKinney told the Michigan Advance.

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André Carson (IN-07)

Age in 2026: 52
Terms Served: Nine

The Situation: This Indianapolis-based seat has been in the Carson family since 1996, when André’s grandmother was elected to Congress. Her death in 2007 led to a special election the next year, which Carson won with a slim 53% of the vote. Carson has largely been a progressive in office, but has not exactly distinguished himself legislatively, ranking near the bottom of most effective members of the caucus.

Only the second Muslim to serve in Congress, he has been critical of Israel’s illegal settler movement, supported BDS, and spoken out forcefully against the genocide in Gaza.

Challenger(s): Former Obama DOJ staffer George Hornedo (34) is challenging Carson less on the basis of ideology than what he perceives to be the incumbent’s inadequately aggressive in his opposition to Trump and the GOP. He’s gotten a fair amount of media coverage since announcing his candidacy but it’ll be an uphill climb to dethrone Carson, who thrashed his last opponent with 84% of the vote last time around.

Don’t be surprised if Hornedo winds up being the beneficiary of some serious spending from the AIPAC-type groups who would love to find another seat to flip.

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Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (FL-20)

Age in 2026: 47
Terms Served: Two

The Situation: This one is an absolute mess… and par for the course for Florida Democrats. The saga began when longtime Rep. Alcee Hastings died in 2021, leading to a tight special primary election that Cherfilus-McCormick won by just five votes. In hindsight, she was almost certainly put over the top by the nearly $6 million that the state of Florida accidentally overpaid her company for medical services during the pandemic, which helped fund the $6.2 million that she lent her campaign.

Cherfilus-McCormick was investigated for pocketing instead of reporting the overpayment — Florida was supposed to pay her family’s healthcare company $50,000 — and agreed to send it back to the state over the next 15 years. But she is far from out of the woods, having wracked up a dizzying array of other ethics investigations and allegations of corruption during her two and a half years in Congress.

Just late last week, the House Ethics Committee found probable cause for further investigation of allegations that she sought money for a nonprofit and steered it to a for-profit entity, as well as an allegation that she accepted campaign donations for an official action.

Challenger(s): Heads were turned in April when 26-year-old activist Elijah Manley reported a very strong two-month haul of $273,389, a sum that was 18-times as much as what Cherfilus-McCormick raised during the first quarter of the year. Manley ran for the state legislature but got stomped in a primary in 2022, so he’s not a total newbie. Still, given Cherfilus-McCormick’s legal and financial troubles — she had just $3,937 on hand at the end of the quarter — I would anticipate additional candidates will jump in.

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Frank Pallone (NJ-06)

Age in 2026: 75
Terms Served: 19

The Situation: A New Jersey institution, Pallone was first elected in 1988 and has remained strong even as the state Democratic Party machine has broken down over the past few years. He’s well-liked and still spry, holding town halls and not pandering to the state’s rightward drift.

Challenger(s): Still, Katie Bansil, at four decades Pallone’s junior, argues that it’s time for generational change. A Filipino immigrant who came to the US at a young age and grew up in Woodbridge (this is the district where I grew up, so I’m modestly invested), Bansil is new to politics (she worked in finance) but does embody the dramatic way that the district’s demographics have shifted since Pallone first won office.

“The last election really sparked something in me,” Bansil told the New Jersey Globe. “There’s this red wave that’s coming through the state, and I think it’s because we’re losing faith in the Democratic Party… There’s so much that we can do, and so much that can be done, in uplifting the working class again, and the youth, and people who are scared to step in and get involved. This is the time, because in politics, there’s no better time than now.”

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Stephen Lynch (MA-08)

Age in 2026: 77
Terms Served: 13

The Situation: The most blue collar of the Boston delegation, Lynch was the head of his local ironworkers union before jumping into politics in the ‘90s. While very pro-labor and working families, he’s also been more conservative on “social” issues; when he entered Congress, he considered himself anti-abortion and was opposed to same-sex marriage for a long time. He also voted against stiffening hate crime laws and recently voted for the Laken Reilly Act.

Lynch is not all that receptive to criticism: during a rally at a VA hospital in February, he shouted down a constituent who had urged him to more forcefully oppose Donald Trump. “I get to decide that. I get to decide that,” Lynch pushed back. “I get to decide that. I’m elected. You want to decide that, you need to run for Congress.”

Unfortunately for Lynch, somebody took him up on it.

Challenger(s): An aide to former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick on several occasions, Patrick Roath (38) declared his candidacy in mid-May, swearing off corporate PAC contributions and criticizing Lynch for his history of conservative positions.

“There is value in having new people come through the system and getting new perspectives and not just having the same set of leaders stay in roles for decades upon decades,” Roath told Boston.com. “The policies and the approaches that might have made a lot of sense 25, 30 years ago just aren’t necessarily suited to the challenges of today.”

One note: his launch video had an unnerving close-up that I assume was aimed to fit on TikTok, but definitely missed the mark. I’m happy to help good candidates figure out how to do that right.

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Danny Davis (IL-07)

Age in 2026: 85
Terms Served: 15

The Situation: The long-time member for a district that stretches from the South Side of Chicago out to the suburbs, Davis has turned away a series of primary challenges over the past few cycles, most notably by a community organizer named Kina Collins. He’s been a good progressive throughout his career, even during the rightward turn of the 1990s, but he’s also had a number of controversies, like his past relationship with antisemitic Nation of Islam founder Louis Farrakhan.

As the third-oldest member of Congress, Davis remains active and alert, which I say both to credit him and to indicate just how low things have gotten for Democrats. Two years is a long time at his age, though, and while he’s strongly hinted that he’s going to run again, he’s avoided making any formal declaration.

Challenger(s): Again, Davis is no stranger to primaries, and first out of the gate this time around is a Chicago businessman named Jason Friedman (51). Scion of one of the most prominent real estate families in the Windy City, Friedman is likely to use his vast personal wealth to help overcome his lack of political experience.

But Friedman won’t have the race to himself, because last week, state Rep. La Shawn Ford (53) filed to run for Congress. What’s interesting is that Ford, a former public school teacher, has been a close ally of Davis’s for many years. Perhaps this suggests that Davis doesn’t plan to run after all.

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Brad Sherman (CA-32)

Age in 2026: 72
Terms Served: 15
The Situation: Sherman has not faced a competitive election since the late ‘90s, largely because he’s been a solidly liberal Democrat and a strong match for his LA-area seat. But as a recent town hall indicated, he doesn’t necessarily have the fire in his belly that people are demanding in response to the horrors of Trump 2.0 — Sherman largely emphasized the importance of the 2026 elections when pressed to do more.

Sherman has earned critics for his deep support for Israel, which he has defended throughout its worsening genocide in Gaza. Throughout his political career, Sherman has received nearly $700,000 from the pro-Israel lobby, though his position is more likely shaped by his own faith and the fact that his district is one of the most Jewish in the nation. Activists may not like it but it’s unlikely to be a weakness in this race.

Challenger(s): To that point, Sherman is being challenged by a one-time staffer who holds the same position on Israel. Jake Rakov (37), whose husband is Jewish, told Jewish Insider that he valued the US’s relationship with Israel and that he supported ongoing military aid to the country. Perhaps the politics of the onslaught will shift by next November, but for now, this is more likely to be an issue outside the district than within it.

Like a number of other challengers in deep blue districts, Rakov, whose husband is the executive director of End Citizens United/Let America Vote, has leaned on the fresh approach argument over any specific criticisms of Sherman’s record. He wants to focus on science and technology policy as well as cybersecurity and transportation. The other declared candidate in the race, a small business owner named Christopher Ahuja (44), says that he’s committed to the “Abundance Agenda.”

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Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-03)

Age in 2026: 38
Terms Served: Two

The Situation: It’s the unanswerable question driving seemingly every assignment editor in America mad: Can Marie Gluesenkamp Perez teach Democrats how to win back blue collar voters?

Gluesenkamp Perez, a Reed College grad and business owner, has established her brand as the working class whisperer after winning two tight victories against a fringe right-wing cuckoo in a somewhat rural, red-leaning district and showing a willingness — an eagerness, really — to take heterodox positions and badmouth the Democratic Party’s base.

It’s catnip for the media, but increasingly annoying to the 45% of her district that identifies as solidly blue and can’t figure out why Gluesenkamp Perez does thing like vote for the democracy-throttling SAVE Act or censure Al Green for interrupting Trump.

“It’s a really bad time to be a centrist,” one constituent told the AP. “She just keeps on coming down as one of the few Democrats to side with Republicans, and that is a really hard thing to accept right now. It’s like, look, you ran as a Democrat, and right now Democrats have to draw a hard line.”

Challenger(s): Town halls have been heated and filled with protestors and booing, while various factions, including the local Chinook Indian Nation tribe, have begun formally expressing their displeasure with Gluesenkamp Perez. One local county party has requested that the state party not take sides in a primary, which already has one challenger: Brent Hennrich (47), who ran in the primary in 2022 but stepped aside so that Glusenkamp Perez could secure a spot in Washington’s top-two primary system.

"I am running for Congress because our district deserves a leader who will steadfastly uphold democratic ideals and work tirelessly for our entire community's best interests,” Hennrich said when he announced in mid-May. “The SAVE Act is just one example where current representation has strayed from these values, risking women’s rights and basic civil liberties."

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Nancy Pelosi (CA-12)

Age in 2026: 86
Terms Served: 20

The Situation: Sometimes I wonder whether Nancy Pelosi chose Hakeem Jeffries to replace her as House Democratic leader because he would make people better appreciate her ability to marshal a caucus and throw a punch at Republican knuckle-draggers. Either way, that’s exactly what’s happening — Jeffries has been one of the least-inspiring and conviction-less Democratic leaders in many, many decades.

That being said, Pelosi still wields a lot of control over the Democratic Party, as observed by her helping to push out Joe Biden last summer and ability to choose committee leaders from the shadows (including a hospital bed in Germany). Pelosi already filed to run for re-election, and is probably safe in her district, but she also embodies the old Democratic gerontocracy and faces a well-financed opponent, so another broken hip may change the calculus.

Challenger(s): In what is at least a juicy storyline, Pelosi is being challenged by AOC’s former chief of staff, Saikat Chakrabarti (39), who founded Justice Democrats after making early millions in the tech sector. He left her office in 2019 after criticizing other Democrats on Twitter for voting for one of Trump’s big border bills, though he says that with a child on the way, he was already on his way out.

Pelosi has also attracted two other Democratic challengers, but they’re unlikely to make a dent.

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