Ballot breakdown: democracy, human rights, and outrageously rich people
A deep dive into the initiatives and amendments thus far
Welcome to a Friday night edition of Progress Report.
As promised, I’ve got a big story on the hot trends in ballot initiatives so far this year, which I think serves as a microcosm of the broader political mood.
If you’d rather hear me talk about these things, you can tune into SiriusXM Radio Progress (channel 127) throughout the weekend, which will be replaying my friend Joe Sudbay’s show State of the States. Joe was kind enough to have me on today for a pretty substantive conversation about ballot initiatives and vital swing districts, a generous promotion for to my new sites OnTheBallot.news and FlipSeats.org.
Don’t have SiriusXM or just hate to wait? You can listen to my appearance right here:
I’ll be back later this weekend with good news, for paid subscribers only.
Note: I’ll be honest, this newsletter’s paid subscribers have plummeted since I came back from open-heart surgery. It’s making it hard to do this work, because there are real expenses, including site coding, web hosting, electoral resources, media access, and more. This is a second full-time job, and if you can help make it sustainable, it will allow us to focus on the kinds of stories and candidates that you won’t find anywhere else. If I can do more of this work, it’ll only help Democrats on the state and local levels nationwide.
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With Congress now useless and so many state legislatures either split, bought off, or out of session, direct democracy — ballot initiatives, constitutional amendments, and even local referendum — has become perhaps the most effective tool for influencing government policy and enacting tangible change.
Even though only roughly half of the states permit citizen-driven ballot questions at the state level, activists (and lawmakers) had already qualified 83 initiatives by the end of March, with hundreds of others in the exploratory phase. Add that to the 92 legislative proposals that have already passed out of at least one chamber of their state houses and you’re looking at an incredibly busy year for direct democracy even as much focus is on the battle for Congress.
I’ve documented the biggest pending initiatives and amendments at On The Ballot, the new website I launched last week, and will continue to add and adjust them as they make it for the ballot — I look forward to switching Idaho’s abortion rights amendment’s status to a clear qualified. The initiative list is already somewhat exhaustive, and a few patterns clearly stand out.
Democracy on the ballot
That old chestnut that democracy itself is on the ballot is literally true this year: according to the Ballot Initiative Strategy Center, 31 election-related initiatives have already qualified for the primary or November ballot, with 87 more in progress.
The proposals are a mixed bag, with attempts to expand direct democracy and voting rights as well as conservative-pushed restrictions on people’s fundamental rights. Virginians will vote on Tuesday whether to temporarily redraw their Congressional map to heavily favor Democrats; in November, Missourians will decide whether the GOP’s new gerrymander should continue to stand after this campaign cycle.
In Ohio, Massachusetts and Arizona, activists are pushing to qualify amendments that would codify broad access to the ballot.
Ohioans for Secure and Fair Elections just won the blessing of the state Supreme Court to move forward with an amendment that would institute automatic voter registration, guarantee same-day registration adjustments, and ensure accommodations for voters with disabilities, among other things.
Massachusetts will also ask voters whether to allow for same-day voter registration.
Down in Arizona, legislators and activists are pushing a amendment that would codify early and mail-in voting in the state constitution.
Elsewhere, the ballot initiative itself is… well, on the ballot. Frustrated by their constituents’ maddening tendency to vote for progressive policies when offered the direct opportunity, red state legislators have worked in recent years to both neuter the laws passed by voters and ensure that they won’t be able to pass them again.
In Nebraska, the GOP majority’s decision to weaken and roll back a minimum wage increase passed by voters in 2022 has activists pushing for a constitutional amendment that would curtail such sabotage: Respect Nevada Voters amendment would require an 80% majority of the legislature to change laws passed by voters.
This winter, the Arkansas Supreme Court gave the legislature carte blanche to undo voter-passed initiatives so long as they have a 2/3rd majority. It was the latest blow to direct democracy, which was weakened several years back when the legislature dramatically increased the number of counties from which activists have to collect petitions. The Protect AR Rights campaign would undo these limitations and protect activists from any further interference in the qualification process.
In Montana, voters will have a chance to stop the meddlesome interference that local elected officials often impose on the ballot initiative system. The state could soon pass a constitutional amendment requiring impartial, predictable, open, and timely processes for citizen ballot initiatives.
Missouri has dueling amendments: one, sponsored by Republican lawmakers, would require initiatives to win majorities in all eight of the state’s Congressional districts — an essentially impossible task, with only 5.3% of initiatives projected to reach that absurd standard. On the other hand, the Respect Missouri Voters campaign aims to entrench the process as it stands in the state constitution while also banning legislators from simply rolling the laws back.
Voters in both North Dakota and South Dakota will be asked in November to increase the threshold for constitutional amendments to 60% approval, which is almost impossible to attain: consider how Florida, which made that switch a few years ago, was able to keep abortion illegal despite 57% of the state’s voters supporting a pro-choice amendment at the ballot box in 2024. Utah Republicans want to do the same thing specifically for tax-related measures.
Then there are the cynical and misleading initiatives and amendments, which capitalize on right-wing disinformation: Nevada and North Carolina will vote on requiring strict voter ID, while South Dakota and Kansas will ask voters to amend their state constitutions to affirm that only citizens can vote (which is already the law, of course).
They won’t all be a bummer, but I must unfortunately note that several states are expending considerable funds and directing public energy toward needless attacks on trans kids. This is all that conservatives really have now, so they’re trying to goose dissatisfied base voters with opportunities to bully children.
Refuge of the losers
There are no fewer than three anti-trans initiatives in Colorado this fall, including ones that would ban forms of gender-affirming care and bar trans girls from competing in girls’ sporting events (preventing something that happens without incident maybe once a year).
Washington State and Maine will also have trans sports participation on the ballot this year, as the dismal right wing minorities in those states try to ride a buzzy, outrage topic to relevance. Perhaps most egregious is the bigoted bait and switch being pulled in Missouri, where conservatives have attached a ban on trans care for minors to an amendment that essentially re-ban abortion just two years after voters passed it.
In Arizona, where former Gov. Doug Ducey already signed a law banning trans girls from competing in high school sports (he failed to fix the water crisis or the housing problem in Arizona, but hey, he got that done), activists are moving on to an effort to dictate where kids take showers and sleep during field trips.
Soak the rich
It’s not all bad; in fact, progressive policy is on the march in many right-leaning states, while new and more aggressive leftist economy proposals are starting to take root in more blue states and large cities.
There will be a number of ballot initiatives aimed at forcing the very wealthy to pay their fair share: progressives in Washington State will have to defend the recently passed millionaire tax, which is the state’s first-ever income tax (really!). And in California, in addition to the high-profile billionaire tax battle, voters will get to decide on several creative city-based wealth taxes, specifically targeting business executives.
In June, voters in San Francisco will have a chance to enact a surcharge on companies that are worth $1 billion or more and pay their CEOs one hundred times more than the median worker in the city; the tax, sponsored by two chapters of the SEIU, would raise around $200 million per year.
There’s a similar proposal in Los Angeles, where companies would get slapped with a 0.5% tax on large companies with public contracts and a CEO that takes in at least one hundred times more than the median employee.
Somewhat similarly, Arizona activists are pursuing an initiative that would limit the pay package for healthcare executives. Something like that might seem like a symbolic act — it’s just a few people per hospital — but should it pass, it will move the overton window for public policy and create a new paradigm for what angry economic populists are willing to do to create some economic justice.
On the other hand, the effort to increase working people’s wages and benefits continues in states red and blue. Oklahoma will finally get to vote on an increase to the minimum wage (likely hitting $15 a decade or so after many states), DC is set to weigh in on a living wage for all (or, a $25 minimum wage with an end to the tipped credit). Oakland and the rest of Alameda County is pursuing its own living wage, which it projects to be set at $30/hour by 2030.
Arizona is also looking to end the subminimum wage, which would be groundbreaking. The group One Fair Wage has come close to doing that in several strong blue states, but has hit roadblocks with lawmakers. In Arizona, it’s all up to the residents.
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