Bombshell Democratic primary challenge totals prove change is coming
Voters are energized for young, progressive challengers
Welcome to a Thursday night edition of Progress Report.
Third quarter fundraising reports have now been submitted and it’s looking more and more like we’re going to see a lot of very strong primary challenges to the centrist gerontocracy that still makes up the core of the Democratic Party. Tonight, I’m looking at the most significant races, the new financial totals, and what they say about what could be a watershed election.
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California CD-14
Incumbent:
Rep. Mike Thompson (75-years-old on Election Day, 14 terms served)
Q3 Fundraising: $612K raised | $1.3 million cash on hand
Challenger:
Eric Jones (35-years-old on Election Day)
Q3 Fundraising: $1.55 million raised | $1.3 million cash on hand
The Situation:
A longstanding Blue Dog, Thompson has never faced a competitive primary in his nearly 30 years in Congress. Gavin Newsom’s redistricting proposal would shift this northern California district by 17 points to the right, but it’ll still be a +14 Democratic district.
Jones is a former venture capitalist who made a killing during a brief career on Wall Street, but is nonetheless running as an economic populist critical of the Democratic Party’s close ties to corporate donors. He now runs nonprofits in the Napa Valley. Jones more than doubled Thompson’s third quarter fundraising, in part by kicking in some of his own personal wealth.
California CD-07
Incumbent:
Rep. Doris Matsui (81-years-old on Election Day, 10 terms served)
Q3 Fundraising: $152K raised | $617K cash on hand
Challenger:
Sacramento Councilwoman Mai Vang (36-years-old on Election Day)
Q3 Fundraising: $109K raised | $94K cash on hand
The Situation:
This seat has been in the Matsui family since 1979, when Bob Matsui was elected to Congress. Doris, his widow, was elected to complete his term in 2005, and has had to the job ever since. She’s already sewn up endorsements from the local party establishment, but has been criticized for her quiet during Trump’s second term.
Vai has a pretty incredible backstory: She’s the oldest of 16 children born to Hmong refugees from Laos, grew up in poverty, and won a city council seat with little outside help. Vang has put together a progressive record in city government and is hoping to ride grassroots support and the demand for new leaders to an upset victory. Her $109K haul is a solid first showing, though she’ll have to start surpassing Matsui to make up for the long-term disadvantage.
California CD-32
Incumbent:
Rep. Brad Sherman (71-years-old on Election Day, 15 terms served)
Q3 Fundraising: $323 raised | $4.1 million cash on hand
Challenger:
Jake Levine (42-years-old on Election Day)
Q3 Fundraising: $694K raised | $551K cash on hand
The Situation:
Sherman has been reasonably progressive throughout his time in Congress, but his vigilant support of Israel has earned him some serious skepticism from younger Democrats. Levine isn’t exactly an outsider, as he’s the son of former Rep. Mel Levine and worked in the White House under both Presidents Biden and Obama, but he’s ringing the generational change bell.
“The way this country has now moved into pretty dangerous territory, with all the hallmarks and characteristic of an autocracy — you’ve just got to think the leaders who have led us to this moment are probably not the ones who are going to help get us out of it,” he told Politico.
Levine lost his family home in the Palisades Park fires over the winter, a trauma that pushed him toward running for office.
California CD-34
Incumbent:
Rep. Jimmy Gomez (50-years-old on Election Day, five terms served)
Q3 Fundraising: $336K raised | $553K cash on hand
Challenger:
Angela Gonzales-Torres (31-years-old on Election Day)
Q3 Fundraising: $76K raised | $66K cash on hand
The Situation:
Rep. Jimmy Gomez was nearly upset by a fellow Democrat who ran to his left in California’s jungle primary system. A former union organizer who grew up in a working class Latino neighborhood, Gomez has strayed from those roots in Congress.
Gonzales-Torres, the former president of the Highland Park Neighborhood Council, is being backed by Justice Democrats, which shed staffers after the 2024 election but remains a prominent player in progressive politics.
Like Gomez, Gonzales-Torres grew up working class — she was raised by a single mother after her father was deported to Mexico — but she’s running a populist campaign. She also hit Gomez for taking gobs of money from AIPAC.
Connecticut CD-01
Incumbent:
Rep. John Larson (78-years-old on Election Day, 14 terms served)
Q3 Fundraising: $809K raised | $879K cash on hand
Challenger(s):
Former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin (48-years-old on Election Day)
Q3 Fundraising: $1.2 million raised | $1.1 million cash on hand
Ruth Fortune (38-years-old on Election Day)
Q3 Fundraising: $41K raised | $71K cash on hand
State Rep. Jillian Gilchrest (44-years-old on Election Day)
Q3 Fundraising: $54K raised | $45K cash on hand
Jack Perry (36-years-old on Election Day)
Q3 Fundraising: $528K raised | $467K cash on hand
The Situation:
With questions about his health and a long list of qualified potential replacements lined up for a competitive open primary, this would have been a perfect moment for Larson to end a distinguished career in Congress. He probably could have tipped the scales in a crowded open primary and essentially chosen his successor.
Instead, he’s got three or four legitimate challengers, including a well-known former mayor who just blew him out of the water in third quarter fundraising.
Bronin, the former two-term mayor of Hartford, actually asked Larson to step aside before declaring his candidacy. His $1.2 million haul is especially impressive because he jumped in late July, reducing his time to fundraise, and took nothing from corporate PACs; Larson accepted $310,000 from those entities. Bronin hasn’t really trashed Larson and is instead focused on generational change.
Fortune is an attorney and member of the Hartford Board of Education. She was born in Haiti, brought to the US as a small child, and finally gained citizenship in 2017.
Having entered elected office in 2018 by unseating a more conservative Democrat, Gilchrest is not hesitant to demand more from her party. She’s the former director of the group Pro-Choice Connecticut, but is leaning on economic populism.
A city councilor in Southington, Perry is pitching himself as the blue collar candidate in this race after a career building a garbage-collecting business that he sold last year. Some of the haul will be invested into this campaign, as Perry dumped half a million dollars into the race.
Florida CD-20
Incumbent:
Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (47-years-old on Election Day, three terms served)
Q3 Fundraising: $68K raised | $124K cash on hand
Challenger:
Elijah Manley (27-years-old on Election Day)
Q3 Fundraising: $114K raised | $20K cash on hand
The Situation:
This one is an absolute mess… and par for the course for Florida Democrats. The saga began when longtime Rep. Alcee Hastings died in 2021, leading to a tight special primary election that Cherfilus-McCormick won by just five votes. The victory was made possible by nearly $6 million that the state of Florida accidentally overpaid her family’s healthcare company during the pandemic, ill-gotten funds that she then lent her campaign.
Florida officials eventually noticed the oversight, so instead of just writing off the “personal loan,” the Congresswoman has to pay that money back, which will also require raising enough money to stay in office. Her fundraising strategy thus far has been to abuse her office, which has her in deep shit with the House Ethics Committee.
Luckily for her, Cherfilus-McCormick is facing what seems to be a very messy and poorly managed primary challenge. Elijah Manley, a young activist who ran for state legislature a few cycles ago, has raised $600K and somehow spent just about all of it. His disbursal disclosures haven’t made it to the FEC site yet, but as of July, he was pouring money into consultants and fundraisers. Great system we have.
Georgia CD-13
Incumbent:
David Scott (81-years-old on Election Day, 12 terms served)
Q3 Fundraising: $182K raised | $330K cash on hand
Challengers:
State Sen. Emanuel Jones (67-years-old on Election Day)
Q3 Fundraising: Undisclosed
Everton Blair (34-years-old on Election Day)
Q3 Fundraising: $114,566 raised | cash on hand unavailable
State Rep. Jasmine Clark (43-years-old on Election Day)
Q3 Fundraising: $153K raised | $143K cash on hand
The Situation:
Scott made headlines when he snapped at a photographer and called him an “asshole” for taking his photo while he was being pushed in his wheelchair outside the Capitol. More than a temper tantrum, it was another affirmation of Scott’s steep cognitive decline; in February, Politico reported that he was reading from scripts during private conversations and losing track of party policy. While he won re-election last fall, he was forced to give up his role as the ranking member of the Agriculture Committee.
There are half a dozen candidates seeking to take Scott’s job, with three in particular real threats to supplant him. At 67, state Sen. Emanuel Jones can’t make a real generational argument, and his fundraising numbers haven’t come in yet, so it’s hard to tell whether he’ll be an electoral threat.
The two younger candidates seem viable, both politically and financially, especially against an incumbent with low cash on hand.
Blair was a public school teacher in Atlanta before being elected the youngest chairman of the Gwinnett County Board of Education.
Clark has perhaps the most interesting profile in this race, as a state lawmaker, microbiologist, and a podcast host on the Red, Wine & Blue network (which is a real thing). She too is making the generational argument against Scott, though she’s also focused on public health and home ownership as two key issues animating her campaign.
Hawaii CD-01
Incumbent:
Rep. Ed Case (74-years-old on Election Day, six terms served)
Q3 Fundraising: $108K raised | $581K cash on hand
Challengers:
State Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole (43-years-old on Election Day)
Q3 Fundraising: $228K raised | $172K cash on hand
State Rep. Della Au Belatti (52-years-old on Election Day)
Q3 Fundraising: $34K raised | $34K cash on hand
The Situation:
A conservative Democrat in one of the country’s bluest seats, Case regularly angers progressives with his votes; this year, he’s voted with Republicans to require proof of citizenship to vote and to censure Rep. Al Green for his protest during Donald Trump’s quasi-State of the Union speech. He’s a solid fundraiser and has worn down fellow Democrats into supporting his campaigns, though this cycle threatens to blow up his loose coalition.
He now has two challengers, both coming from the left: Keohokalole is a populist opponent of price-gouging corporations and powerful political entities who has gone to war with energy companies and property insurers. Belatti is a former House Majority Leader who has been more willing to directly attack Case for his votes and mild opposition to the Trump administration’s immigration policies.
Indiana CD-07
Incumbent:
Rep. Andre Carson (52-years-old on Election Day, nine terms served)
Q3 Fundraising: $156K raised | cash on hand unavailable
Challenger:
George Hornedo (36-years-old on Election Day)
Q3 Fundraising: $110K raised | $42K cash on hand
The Situation:
This Indianapolis-based seat has been in the Carson family since 1996, when André’s grandmother was elected to Congress. Her death in 2007 led to a special election the next year, which Carson won with a slim 53% of the vote. Carson has largely been a progressive in office, but has not exactly distinguished himself legislatively, ranking near the bottom of most effective members of the caucus.
Only the second Muslim to serve in Congress, he has been critical of Israel’s illegal settler movement, supported BDS, and spoken out forcefully against the genocide in Gaza. Those positions look a lot more popular now, and may insulate him against Hornedo, who has largely punched left and expressed his support for Israel in campaign documents.
Maryland CD-5
Incumbent:
Rep. Steny Hoyer (87-years-old on Election Day, 22 terms served)
Q3 Fundraising: $43K raised | $439K cash on hand
Challengers:
Harry Jarin (36-years-old on Election Day)
Q3 Fundraising: $11K raised | $80K cash on hand
Quincy Bareebe (age undisclosed)
Q3 Fundraising: $520K raised | $502K cash on hand
The Situation:
Is uncertainty beginning to swirl around the former House Majority Leader? He hasn’t officially announced that he’s running for a third term, and after a strong second quarter in which he raised $232K, Hoyer only took in $43K over the past three months.
It’s possible that Hoyer took his foot off the gas a bit because the candidate who was shaping up to be his main rival, Harry Jarin, a volunteer firefighter and emergency services consultant, hasn’t proven to be much of a fundraiser. But even if Jarin proves to be a non-entity, Hoyer will once again have to contend with Quincy Bareebe, a former federal employee and assisted living CEO who loaned her campaign a cool half million dollars this summer.
Bareebe was one of several upstarts to challenge Hoyer in 2024 and came in second place, though she earned just over 11% of the vote. With Democrats now reckoning with gerontocracy and failed leadership, however, this could a much closer race.
Massachusetts CD-1
Incumbent:
Rep. Richie Neal (77-years-old on Election Day, 19 terms served)
Q3 Fundraising: $261K raised | $3.9 million cash on hand
Challengers:
Jeromie Whalen (39-years old on Election Day)
Q3 Fundraising: $55K raised | $15K cash on hand
The Situation:
Neal is one of the most powerful — and corrupt — Democrats in the House, an ally of big banks who has regularly voted for deregulation and been handsomely rewarded for doing so. Last year, his incestuous relationship with the financial services industry drew even more headlines when it was revealed that, while chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, he kept his son Brendan on the payroll while Brendan also worked as a high-paid lobbyist for big banks.
Back in 2020, Neal was able to defeat a strong primary challenge from former Holyoke Mayor Alex Morse, a victory that followed a homophobic smear campaign waged against his opponent. This time around, he’s facing a challenge from a teacher named Jeromie Whalen, who is running as a populist focused on affordability, backs the Green New Deal, and has hit Neal for his accepting hundreds of thousands of dollars from AIPAC and arms manufacturers.
Massachusetts CD-8
Incumbent:
Rep. Stephen Lynch (71-years-old on Election Day, 12 terms served)
Q3 Fundraising: $60K raised | $1.02 million cash on hand
Challenger:
Patrick Roath (39-years old on Election Day)
Q3 Fundraising: $142K raised | $261K cash on hand
The Situation:
The most blue collar of the Boston delegation, Lynch was the head of his local ironworkers union before jumping into politics in the ‘90s. While very pro-labor and working families, he’s also been more conservative on “social” issues; when he entered Congress, he considered himself anti-abortion and was opposed to same-sex marriage for a long time.
Lynch is not all that receptive to criticism: during a rally at a VA hospital in February, he shouted down a constituent who had urged him to more forcefully oppose Donald Trump. “I get to decide that. I get to decide that,” Lynch pushed back. “I get to decide that. I’m elected. You want to decide that, you need to run for Congress.”
Unfortunately for Lynch, somebody took him up on it.
Roath, a former Obama DOJ staffer is challenging Lynch less on the basis of ideology than what he perceives to be the incumbent’s inadequate opposition to Trump and the GOP. Now a voting rights advocate, he’s also been offering innovative legal solutions to gerrymandering (whether the Supreme Court cares is another story). He’s also hit Lynch for supporting a resolution that praised ICE, which is becoming more toxic by the day.
Lynch still enjoys support from major labor unions and has a huge cash advantage, but Roath’s haul this quarter should give him some momentum.
Michigan CD-13
Incumbent:
Rep. Shri Thanedar (71-years-old on Election Day, two terms served)
Q3 Fundraising: $498K raised | $7.9 million cash on hand (as of July)
Challenger:
State Rep. Donavan McKinney (33-years-old on Election Day)
Q3 Fundraising: $220K raised | $289K cash on hand
The Situation:
Thanedar is an India-born chemical entrepreneur spent millions of dollars of his own money to lose a gubernatorial race in 2018, then win seats in the state legislature and Congress. He was known for alleged shady business practices during his days in private industry and continues to find unconventional ways to make money and self-finance his campaigns: in July, he revealed that he’d made $1.72 million by investing campaign funds in crypto, which he’s supposed to regulate in Congress. He’s also a prolific stock trader, running afoul of Congressional laws.
He’ll need the money, because his politics are inscrutable, he’s never been particularly popular, and now he’s facing a legitimate primary challenger in state Rep. Donavan McKinney, a progressive populist from Detroit.
“I’m not running because I’m a millionaire. I’m running because I’m not. I’m running because our community deserves to be able to sleep at night knowing they have a Representative in Congress who truly knows their struggles and truly fights for them every single day,” McKinney told the Michigan Advance.
McKinney is backed by Justice Democrats and now has the progressive lane to himself after another challenger switched to a statewide race. He won’t match Thanedar’s fundraising, but his $220K haul last quarter shows that he can raise enough to compete.
Tennessee CD-09
Incumbent:
Rep. Steve Cohen (77-years-old on Election Day, ten terms served)
Q3 Fundraising: $41K raised | $1.8 million cash on hand
Challenger:
State Rep. Justin Pearson (32-years-old on Election Day)
Q3 Fundraising: $200K raised (in 36 hours after launch)
The Situation:
Cohen has held this Memphis-area seat for nearly two decades and hasn’t had much difficulty seeing off under-funded primary challengers. This time around, Cohen is in for the fight of his life, as he’s being challenged by state Rep. Justin Pearson, one of Tennessee Three, the legislators punished for protesting gun violence on the floor of the state house.
Pearson and colleague Justin Jones were expelled from the legislature, which sent their profiles skyrocketing, and Pearson was subsequently reappointed to the legislature. He’s backed by Justice Democrats and is off to a flying start, having raised $200K in the first 36 hours after he announced last week.
The big outstanding question is whether Nathan Fielder will speak out on Cohen’s behalf after their encounter last year.
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I certainly hope you're right. There's the hurdles of getting on the ballot and then winning, particularly in the heavily gerrymandered states, and the purple states.