Democrats' most important 2026 targets
Controlling states has never been more important. This is your living guide to that mission.
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When I first launched this newsletter in late 2017, the Democratic Party was in disarray. Republicans held a trifecta in DC and it was even worse outside the Beltway, as a combination of GOP gerrymanders and a decade of utter disregard by the DNC had resulted in the loss of 1000 legislative seats and hollowed, often non-existent state and local Democratic parties.
The goal back then was to help elect better Democrats to federal office (via primaries) and assist in the grassroots movement to rebuild local power. Things went well! But the last two cycles have been tough, and nearly a decade later, Democrats once again find themselves shut out in DC, led by wimps in Congress, and dealing with unfriendly maps in swing states.
That original mission has returned, and though the legislative margins in many states aren’t nearly as bad — due to the great work of groups like Run for Something, Indivisible, and others — the seriousness of the crisis and importance of fortifying at the state level has never been more urgent.
We’ve seen the difference between blue and red states, as well as states where democracy works and states where it has been throttled: abortion rights, cooperation with or resistance to ICE, funding for public education, fair representation, and healthcare are all on the line, all the time. It’s no exaggeration to say that millions of lives are determined by what can be fewer than a 100 votes in suburban legislative elections.
While cognizant that Blue No Matter Who is a farce and a scam (underscored by ongoing coverage of primary challengers to sell-out Dems in Congress), I’m diving back into the state legislative election game, covering the competitive races in the chambers most likely to either flip to Democrats or see a veto-proof GOP supermajority shattered. Over the past few weeks, I’ve put together a growing list of districts, incumbents, challengers, margins, and notes for the most critical state chambers. The list contains the closest seats in each state, both those held by Republicans and Democrats.
This is a living list that will only fill out and grow with time. Different state filing deadlines and primary dates mean that some districts have decided nominees, while others do not yet have officially declared candidates. In some states, the 2024 presidential election margins by district are readily available; in others, the information is almost impossible to track down.
Ideally, this list will grow as the GOP crumbles and more seats come into play, but that will require a lot of work from people on the ground. As the year goes on, I’ll be highlighting candidates from this list as well as local organizations doing the hard work to expand the map and get progressives elected. Please feel free to append notes or email me adjustments, updates, or even corrections; I’ve fact-checked this thing a whole bunch, but alas, I am not flawless.
There will be more states added, too, because if you’re not expanding the map, you’re letting it shrink. So keep this spreadsheet bookmarked — I will likely get a separate, simple URL for it at some point — and use it as you see fit.
For a quick reference, here’s where the relevant states listed stand:
Arizona: Democrats need to flip three seats in the state Senate and four seats in the state House. Re-election for Gov. Katie Hobbs would give them their first Arizona trifecta in… ever, I believe. I’ve identified four very flippable seats on the Senate side (more could fall in a wave year) and five on the House side, so it’ll be tight, but possible.
Michigan: Democrats hold a one-seat majority in the state Senate and need to flip four seats to win back the state House. An open governor’s race will likely help dictate the outcome here.
Minnesota: It doesn’t get closer than this, as Democrats hold a one-seat majority in the state Senate and the House is tied, with both parties in a power-sharing agreement.
The GOP brand will be in the absolute toilet after the Trump administration’s invasion of the Twin Cities, and Gov. Tim Walz’s stepping aside will take away a big Republican target. But Democrats won a handful of very close races in 2024, so the challenge won’t just be flipping seats, but holding on to them, especially in the Iron Range, a historic blue territory that has become very Trumpy at the national level.
Pennsylvania: Gov. Josh Shapiro is likely cruising to re-election, but the more progressive elements of his agenda have — ostensibly — been halted by the Democrats’ ultra-narrow majority in the House and the GOP’s hold on the state Senate.
There are two special House elections in GOP-leaning districts next week, as well as one in mid-May; should Republicans retains those districts, the Dem lead will be back down to one. On the Senate side, Democrats have to flip two more seats to even things up.
Wisconsin: Flipping the Supreme Court allowed former Gov. Scott Walker’s pernicious gerrymander to finally be overturned, which led to an exodus by many Republicans terrified of competitive elections. That includes longtime speaker Robin Vos, whose seat will be a reach but not out of the question. Democrats need two seats in the state Senate and five in the House, which will be tough but not out of the question, pending the gubernatorial election.
North Carolina: Republicans have been able to consistently override Democratic Gov. Josh Stein’s vetoes over the last year, not because they have supermajorities, but because a few terrible Democrats consistently defected on those votes. Democratic primary voters took care of that issue, to some degree, by tossing three of those incumbents out of office. But this fall offers a chance to get on firmer ground, with a number of close seats that could turn blue in a wave year.
More to come…
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Outstanding, thank you for this