February elections: Small races with big consequences
Majorities are on the line, and every vote counts
Welcome to a Sunday edition of Progress Report.
We’re now nearly a week into February of an odd-numbered, off-cycle year, which can really only mean one thing: Election season is upon us!
No, I’m not talking about the 30 fundraising emails you’re already getting per day from candidates running for the US Senate in 2024. I’m talking about special elections, primaries, and even some general elections that are rapidly approaching in states and municipalities all across the country. Forget the horse races; this is the good stuff.
Today we’ll look at some of the most compelling elections coming up over the next three weeks, with a focus on those that could have significant impact on party control and policymaking. There is a whole load of big city and state elections on February 27th, so we’ll address those in another upcoming newsletter.
February 7th
Pennsylvania
Special Elections: State House Districts 32, 34, 35
If all goes to plan for Democrats on Tuesday, the uncertainty and acrimony that has gripped Harrisburg for the past month will end with the House flipping blue for the first time since the 2010 Tea Party rout.
Democrats actually won one more House seat than Republicans in November, but three winners were unable to take their seats when session began last month. Voters enthusiastically supported Rep. Tony DeLuca (HD-32) despite the fact that he died of lymphoma a month before the election; Summer Lee (HD-34) won a bruising Congressional election; and Austin Davis (HD-35) got a promotion to lieutenant governor.
Each district is located in Allegheny County, in and around Pittsburgh, and they’re all considered pretty safe blue seats, leaning at least 15 points to the left. Democrats picked relatively safe candidates, as well:
Joe McAndrew (HD-32) is the former head of the local Democratic committee and is a veteran legislative and campaign staffer; Abigail Salisbury (HD-34), a lawyer, ran against Lee in a primary for the legislative district last summer but obviously came up short; and Matthew Gergely (HD-35) is a long-time civil servant who is running against a hard-line cop. Gergely’s brother represented the district from 2003-17, when he was sentenced to 18 months in prison for campaign finance improprieties.


Should Democrats win all three elections, they’ll secure a one seat, skin-of-their-teeth majority in the state House. The focus will then turn to who will lead that minuscule majority, which has become its own soap opera. In early January, with the hard-line Republican leader trying to claim a majority, Democrats and a handful of moderate Republicans cooked up a secret deal to elevate Mark Rozzi, a moderate and unheralded Democratic rank-and-filer, to Speakership.
The cooperative spirit didn’t last long. Republicans claimed that Rozzi promised to re-register as an independent in exchange for their votes, but aware that he has to keep his caucus happy if he wants any hope of retaining the job, Rozzi has thus far remained a Democrat.
That obviously hasn’t sat well with Republicans, who took revenge by blocking Rozzi’s top priority, a constitutional amendment that would extend protections to childhood sex abuse victims. Rozzi, himself a survivor of childhood sex abuse, responded by gaveling the House into recess through the end of the month.
Then he doubled down by locking not only the House chamber, but also an office in which Republicans keep some of their confidential documents. If and when Democrats win the three special elections, they’re likely to boot the GOP out of that office altogether. Whether it’s Rozzi that would pull the trigger on office reassignments is also uncertain.
Rozzi was able to win the Speakership only because Rep. Joanna McClinton, the Democratic floor leader, was willing to pull her name from consideration and release her caucus to support the deal. McClinton, a Black woman from Philadelphia, is far more politically aligned with the majority of the Democratic caucus; Rozzi is a pro-gun fiscal conservative who voted last year to ban trans students from playing girls sports.
McClinton has said that she’s hoping that her colleagues will support her bid for Speaker, but it’s not as straightforward as a simple caucus vote. Unless he agreed to voluntarily step down, it would require a two-thirds vote to remove Rozzi from the Speakership. Unfortunately for McClinton, Rozzi seems to like his newfound power and has been touring the state in an attempt to build his profile ahead of what is likely to be an internal tug-of-war.
The ideological commitments of the person that controls the House agenda is undoubtedly consequential, but merely ensuring that the legislature flips blue is what’s crucial here.
Newly elected Josh Shapiro is an idiosyncratic Democrat, who is willing to take on big battles against oil companies and Wall Street but also added a bunch of Republicans to his cabinet and is squishy on key issues like fracking and expanded school vouchers.
If Republicans are able to keep both chambers of the legislature, it’ll put them in position to advance conservative bills that they know Shapiro could be willing to sign. Democratic control puts the kibosh on that scary prospect, and it also stops Republicans from pushing more constitutional amendments through the legislature and onto the ballot.
February 14th
Seattle
Special Election: Social Housing Ballot Initiative
There’s a fundamental tension that undergirds Seattle, which has exploded from a small hippie city into one of the most prominent tech hubs in the world.
There’s a strong socialist streak in the city’s politics, yet housing prices continue to soar thanks to gentrification from high-paid tech workers and the impact that companies like Facebook and Amazon have had on the local economy. On Valentine’s Day, the left will try to seize the initiative and establish a beachhead for a radical new way for government to shape the market and provide for residents.
If successful, the I-135 ballot initiative would establish a Seattle Social Housing Developer, which will have the authority to develop, own, and maintain social housing for working and middle class families.
More specifically, the ordinance would:
Establishes a Public Developer which will create publicly owned, social housing for those making 0-120% Area Median Income
Requires City Start-up Support for the first 18 months including in-kind staff and office space
Creates a Process for Public Lands to undergo a city feasibility study to determine housing need and whether the land should be transferred to the developer before considering the sale of said lands.
There’s a more granular charter that would guide the construction and maintenance of the resultant housing developments, including a requirement that rent cost less than 30% of a particular resident’s monthly income. The buildings would also be required to offer services such as daycare and communal kitchens.
It sounds like a dream, and something desperately needed in a country where renters have been hung out to dry by the federal government, but the plan has its hard-nosed, market-oriented skeptics. Over the weekend, the Seattle Times Editorial Board came out against the initiative, warning that it had no funding mechanism and wouldn’t immediately help the poorest people in the city.
Oklahoma City
General Election: City Council
Four of the eight seats on the city council are on the ballot this cycle, including those of two of the three Democrats that are currently in office.
Ward 6 council member JoBeth Harmon. who I somehow knew was from Oregon before I looked it up, is a brave progressive in a city that doesn’t always welcome them. She’s been on the front lines of efforts to repeal the state’s loose gun laws, fights with bad landlords, and efforts to make a racially divided car city more accessible with public transit. She also welcomes her haters, which I respect:

Ward 2 councilman James Cooper is the first openly LGBTQ+ member of the OKC City Council, as well as the first non-white member from outside Ward 7, a historically Black part of the city. He’s a professor at Oklahoma City University, and has been at the forefront of efforts to improve educational outcomes for low-income kids and the reinstatement of the city’s long-abandoned Human Rights Commission.
With the infamously violent OKC police department in the midst of an attempt to implement reforms recommended by outside experts, it’s pivotal that there are lawmakers willing to hold them to account. Cooper and Harmon will be a pivotal part of that.
February 21st
New Hampshire
Special Election: House of Representatives District Strafford 8
New Hampshire has 1.4 million people and 400 state legislators, an astonishing ratio that averages out to one Representative for every 3,300 residents. With such small margins, it’s no cliche to say that every single vote really counts — just ask the residents of Rochester, a small town on the border of Maine.
In November, incumbent Rep. Chuck Grassie (D) and former mayor David Walker each earned 971 votes, putting the seat in limbo and sparking some legislative shenanigans. After House Republicans narrowly lost a vote to exercise their right to just seat Walker anyway, they threw the decision to the local ward in Rochester, which decided to call a special rematch election between the two well-known politicians.
New Hampshire has leaned red in state-level elections over the past few cycles, but the House, with its 400 seats, is just about as split as it gets. Republicans currently hold a 201-198 advantage, which could slim down to two seats should Grassie prevail. That would ensure that every single vote matters in the legislature, as well. With school vouchers and other important policies at play, nothing could be more pivotal.
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