It's crunch time — will Democrats show some spine?

Here are 8 reasons why they have to vote no

Welcome to a Thursday edition of Progress Report.

It’s crunch time in the Senate, where Democrats are debating what to do about the catastrophic Republican government funding bill. With time of the essence, I’m sending this first newsletter about that fight right now, and I’ll have a second newsletter with a number of other important stories later in the day.

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Senate Democrats are currently weighing whether it will cost them more politically to vote for or against the Republican continuing resolution to fund the government. The resolution would effectively implement huge budget cuts and hand a blank check to Elon Musk, so the fact that they even have to game out the scenarios is a troubling sign of total disconnect with their constituents and the electorate at large.

Here are the basic facts that Democrats need to recognize before it’s too late:

1. Musk is the perfect villain: the world’s richest man, a white nationalist, a total troll, and the guy in charge of devastating government services. The continuing resolution is the one bit of leverage that Democrats have, and they need to use it to very loudly demand Musk’s ouster and the end of the DOGE experiment. At the very least, they need serious guardrails that make him a clown with a ceremonial role, not the de facto president.

2. Trump, too, is increasingly unpopular, with polling that has dipped significantly underwater, and the trade war he’s pursuing is likely to lead to both economic recession and a further drop in popularity. He’s desperate to get this bill passed, and he’s already shown a willingness to rein Musk in when put under pressure. He’s also never met somebody he wouldn’t throw under the bus, so demanding that, as well as refusing cuts to Medicare and other popular programs that Trump has “promised” not to slash, are worth demanding.

3. There are so many other programs that are worth saving and can easily be used as a cudgel against the GOP. For example, their bill would cut $859 million from the Congressionally Directed Medical Research Program, which amounts to a 57% reduction to a program that invests in biomedical research for conditions that impact veterans, military families, and current service members. How do they answer to that?

4. There have not been real consequences for government shutdowns in more than a decade. And even those were fleeting: Republicans were blamed for forcing a shutdown in 2013, but their poll numbers quickly recovered and the party went on to rack up huge wins in 2014, including taking back the Senate.

5. It’ll actually be pretty hard to take the whole blame for this shutdown given the Trump administration’s war on government functions. Trump and Musk have fired tens of thousands of workers and have been attempting to shutter whole agencies since the day they took office. Democrats could easily say that they are pushing back against the administration’s efforts to shut down the government permanently.

6. The presumption that voters care about institutions and that they give anybody credit for being “the adults in the room” should have been obliterated with this past November’s election. Republicans didn’t give Democrats an inch, pinned inflation on them, and then won a trifecta.

7. This bill would allow Trump to tank the economy and hobble government services. It’s both morally and politically foolish to vote for it. What’s the upside in being seen as weak-kneed collaborators?

8. Poll after poll shows that Democrats are not pushing back against Trump enough. Taking a stand here could change that perception.

Right now, the word is that Democrats are going to demand an amendment to the CR that would extend government funding just 30 days instead of six months. It’s a galaxy-brained tactic that only people who want to lose (and haven’t spoken to a normal person in years) would pursue.

Democrats want to pretend to fight, make some big speeches, and then fold like they have done throughout the early days of Trump 2.0. It pains me to say this, especially because he’s going to vote for cloture, but John Fetterman is right about this being dishonest and “total theater.”

It’s hard to believe that they don’t understand the anger of their voting base (and the American people more broadly), but they’re banking on the fact that Democratic voters will come home to them when it matters. I don’t think they’ll truly appreciate the seriousness of the situation until they face barren fundraising coffers and real primary threats, and we’re probably inching closer to a liberal Tea Party — if it can be funded.

You can let them know that’s coming if they fold by calling yours and other senators — I recommend calling the wishy washy ones and just telling their staff that you’re from a swing county in the relevant state.

Here is the Senate switchboard number: (202) 224-3121.

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