Welcome to a Saturday edition of Progress Report.
With two and a half weeks to go before Election Day, it would be a lie to say that the vibe for liberal democracy is all that positive right now. While it seemed last month as if Democrats had a solid shot at defying the typical midterm swoon for the party in power, polls over the past few weeks have consistently shown Republicans surging into the lead once again due to rising gas prices and the Democrats’ remarkably poor campaign strategy.
Add in the hostile takeover of Nevada’s election system and a pair of decisions by hack Trump judges to temporarily block Biden’s student debt cancelation program and even more of New York’s new gun ban, and there’s no shortage of troubling news to worry about over this weekend.
All that being said, you don’t need me to bum you out even further. So tonight, we’re going to put aside the negative headlines and dive into some of the good things happening in what is for now still a representative democracy.
Elections
State Houses: New analysis from UVA elections expert Larry Sabato suggests Democrats are in good position to flip one or more state legislative chambers in November.
As we’ve covered with great fury here at Progress Report, Republicans last year aggressively re-gerrymandered several states to all but guarantee that they would keep control of legislatures that seemed potentially up for grabs. But thanks to a number of state court rulings and newly established independent redistricting commissions, a handful of once-rigged states now have much more fair and competitive districts then they have in years, and as a result, Sabato thinks a few of them are primed to go blue.
Democratic chances have improved in both chambers in Arizona, as well as the Michigan, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania Houses, although only the Arizona and Michigan Senates are Toss-ups (the Republicans are favored in the others). Meanwhile, Republican chances have improved in both chambers in Nevada, with the Senate becoming a Toss-up and the Democrats retaining an edge in the House.
Democrats are also playing defense in places like Nevada and Maine, so we have to temper our enthusiasm (which is already tempered by the results produced by those Democrats in office). Still, Arizona and Michigan’s Republican legislative candidates are out of their minds and thus particularly vulnerable, which is why we’re raising money for the Democrats in battleground races in those states (among others).
National: There’s no way to spin the fact that Democrats sinking in the polls as good news, but what does encourage me is the fact that people with actual sway are speaking out about the bleedingly obvious failures of the party’s campaign strategy.
Influential and well-respected Stan Greenberg has been on a media tour of late, urging Democrats to stop just focusing on abortion and Republican extremism and instead offer an aggressive, progressive economic message and give voters material incentives for voting blue.
His piece in the Prospect, written with several other prominent strategists, lays it all out:
What we have to do, though, is end on a strong economic argument. Democrats need to understand that we have a winning message on the economy and inflation. But rising costs will beat us if we avoid the issue.
If voters never hear ads from candidates mentioning rising costs; if the mail they receive never mentions it; if they only hear it touched on in stump speeches; if the answers to the inflation question in debates are mushy; voters are going to decide those Democratic candidates are not prioritizing the issue they are most focused on.
There’s a lot more there, and I recommend you read it all to better understand both why talking a populist economic message is so vital right now and why Democrats should be well-positioned to do it.
It seems as if Democratic leaders are starting to get the message; whether there’s enough time on the clock for it to matter remains to be seen, but I’d rather see them go down swinging at the very least.
Ohio: Would it shock you to know that the Democratic candidates for the state Supreme Court are far more qualified than their Republican opponents?
Well, don’t take my word for it — here’s a compilation of judicial evaluations handed out by legal groups in Ohio and put together by the Cleveland Plain-Dealer:
There are three seats up for grabs on the Ohio State Supreme Court, which is currently controlled by Republicans by a slim 4-3 margin. The election couldn’t be more pivotal for Ohioans given the way Republicans once again gerrymandered the legislature, which directly violated the constitution.
If Democrats can capture the majority of the court, they’ll have an opportunity to overturn some of the extreme right-wing policies being implemented by the GOP state government. Abortion bans, attacks on public education, voter ID — it’s all on the line. I’ll have a deeper report on this from More Perfect Union in the next week or so, stay tuned for that.
Arizona: Republican voters are acting like the fringe terrorists they are in Arizona, where they’re aggressively “monitoring” polling sites and intimidating voters. Obviously, that’s not good news, but we can take solace in the fact that these morons are all withholding their mail-in ballots until the last day, which will make life harder for GOTV operations and risk having their vote tossed.
Social Safety Net and Civil Rights
Kentucky: Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear announced a major expansion to the state’s Medicaid program this week. The program now offers dental, vision, and hearing care to north of 900,000 low income residents.
It’s hard to overstate just how much of a help this will be for so many people who are living on the poverty line. Dental care in particular is sinfully expensive and bad dental health can knock people out of the workforce for totally avoidable reasons.
Baltimore: Putting aside state-sponsored health care, straight up giving people cash is maybe the most helpful and most cost-effective form of public assistance. Universal Basic Income programs are popping up in small scale trials in cities across the country, including in Baltimore, where it’s proven to be an immediate success.
The program sends $1000 checks to 200 low-income young parents with no strings attached — no exhausting paperwork, impossible work requirements, or invasive drug testing. Just two months in, the pilot has already been life-changing for many of its participants:
For Ariana Williams, a 24-year-old participant in Baltimore’s pilot, the guaranteed income program came as a signal of hope amid “a downward spiral.” In February, Williams lost her temp job as an insurance agent. She was a new mother and in need of a post-pregnancy surgery. The landlord of her old apartment took the property back, forcing Williams and her boyfriend to move apart. Williams, whose parents both died when she was a kid, took her daughter and moved in with her aunt, who was dealing with a string of her own health issues and facing possible foreclosure.
“You know how they say life gets harder before it gets better? It did,” Williams said. “It got worse.”
But once Williams started receiving cash from the city in August, things turned around pretty quickly, she said. She moved out of her aunt’s home and into an apartment she now shares with her 1-year-old daughter, boyfriend and older sister. She started a part-time job. Aside from rent, Williams said much of her new income stream has gone toward things such as food and diapers — the basics.
Much more here, including some stunning stats and more anecdotes about just how big of a difference the program is already making.
Oklahoma: Feeling the pressure from a spirited Democratic challenger over the state’s crumbling school systems, Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt is trying to get voters to chill out by relenting on legal weed.
The governor called a special session of the legislature for March 2023 to allow Oklahomans to vote on a ballot measure to legalize marijuana. It’s good news, given that the current weed ballot initiative is likely to be tied up in the courts for at least another year, though there’s some concern that a special election will have a lower, more conservative turnout.
Punching Up
Starbucks: Billionaire CEO Howard Schultz’s relentless union-busting campaign is also wearing his corporate white collar workers down.
In a survey of office-based US employees, only 52% said they “completely agree” that Starbucks “behaves in an ethical and responsible manner,” executives told staff at an Oct. 13 meeting, a video of which was viewed by Bloomberg News. Slightly fewer, 48%, said they completely agreed that they were “proud of the role Starbucks has in making a social impact.”
Both of those statistics were “historic lows,” according to a chart displayed at the meeting. Additionally, only 42% of staff fully endorsed the statement that Starbucks “lives up to its mission and values,” while fewer than a quarter fully agreed that “Starbucks leaders make the right decisions for the company.” Starbucks said the study is part of its efforts to engage with its workers.
I spend much of my workday (and sometimes weekends) speaking with organizers and members of Starbucks Workers United, and they continually amaze me with their persistence, solidarity, and ability to laugh at the corporate bozos that are making their lives hell. I’ve also been contacted by white collar Starbucks workers who have expressed their outrage at what the company is doing to its store staff, so all of this tracks.
Regulation: The Federal Trade Commission is planning to crack down on the junk fees that quietly funnel billions of dollars to corporations without people even realizing it.
Affordable Housing: Mobile home residents in Santa Rosa, CA are organizing to win tighter controls on annual rent hikes, which are tied to rises in the consumer price index. Most of the residents are seniors living on fixed income, which doesn't come close to accounting for soaring inflation.
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