Midwestern states are slowly going blue
But New York, a very blue state, is having some trouble
Welcome to a Friday edition of Progress Report.
There’s plenty of news and headlines to catch up on, so let’s dive right in.
Pennsylvania
Democrats won all three special legislative elections in Pennsylvania on Tuesday, a clean sweep that ended three months of suspense and flipped the state House of Representatives blue for the first time in a dozen years.
This round of results in House Districts 32, 34, and 35 mostly mirrored the outcomes in November, minus the fact that a Republican actually ran in the very blue HD 32, whereas it was a token Green Party challenger that provided the opposition to the late Anthony DeLuca in the first go-round.
This is the third state legislative chamber to flip blue, after both Michigan’s state House and Senate went Democratic in November. With the entirety of that state’s government, two-thirds of the government in Pennsylvania, and a good re-election win by Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers, on top of the industrial development headed that way, parts of the Midwest are slowing becoming more reliably blue, though they’re only an election away from blowing it all.
Because Republicans still control the state Senate, the House flip doesn’t give Democrats the trifecta needed to pass the bulk of the party’s agenda. But there are distinct advantages to being in the majority. First and foremost, Democrats will have the upper hand in crafting the $40 billion state budget, allowing them to insert more of their priorities and force Republicans in the Senate to accept them.
They’ll also likely be able to muscle through protections for LGBTQ+ people and a minimum wage hike, putting the onus on moderate suburban Republicans in the Senate to support the bills or blow it with their constituents back home.
Then there’s the constitutional amendment process. If proposed amendments pass in each chamber of the legislature, they’re sent to the ballot for voters to weigh in, no governor approval needed. Democratic victory in the House means that they should be able to stop bad amendments in their tracks, eliminating the risk of bad voting rights or abortion amendments sneaking through to the public.
Just how aggressively Democrats use the power of their thin majority depends in part on who is running the chamber. As I outlined on Sunday, a very centrist Democrat named Mark Rozzi was handed the speaker’s gavel as part of a compromise with moderate Republicans, who technically had the majority until the special elections. Exactly what Rozzi plans to do from here is uncertain, and he’s doing little to provide much clarity.
What we do know is that Rozzi’s biggest priority is passing a law to allow childhood sexual assault survivors a longer window to sue their abusers and get a modicum of justice. Rozzi was raped by his church’s priest at the age of 13, so this is a deeply personal issue to him, and Republican obstruction in the Senate thus far has him increasingly frustrated.
“To me, being a representative means nothing,” he recently said. “Being the speaker of the House means nothing. The only thing that’s important to me is getting this legislation for the retroactive two-year window. So when I look back on my career, if I don’t get this done, it has been a failure to me.”
At the same time, Rozzi has not been operating like somebody who foresees giving up power any time soon. He went on a listening tour of Pennsylvania during the pause he imposed on the House, and when asked about Democratic Majority Leader Joanna McClinton, who was poised to make history as the first female speaker in state history until the special elections became necessary, Rozzi gave a very coy answer.
“If that’s what the body would decide to do or maybe there’s another path, I’m not going to stand in the way of what this body wants,” Rozzi said, knowing full well that it would require a two-thirds majority for Democrats to remove him and install McClinton as speaker. Instead, Rozzi will have to step down from the job that he says he never wanted for McClinton to make history.
Adding to the uncertainty is the fact that the Democratic majority is still endangered, in large part due to the ambition of its own members. Several Democrats are considering opportunities to run for offices outside of the legislature, including Rep. John Galloway, who could run for a district judgeship in Falls Township.
But let’s keep eyes on the here and now: McClinton, who is from west Philly, is much further to the left than the dead-center, pro-gun Rozzi. I hope he gets that bill passed, feels a sense of accomplishment and relief, and then does the right thing and allows Democrats to run a state that voted for Democrats up and down the ballot.
New York
While we’re on the topic of people that should honor the wishes of constituents who voted for Democratic governance, let’s check in with the worst politician in America, NY Gov. Kathy Hochul.
Ah, yes, there she is, allying with Republicans in a pathetic attempt to push through her atrocious nominee for Chief Justice of the state’s highest court.
As we covered in depth a few weeks ago, Hochul pulled off the rare feat of unifying the entirety of the fractious Democratic coalition by asking their leaders who she should nominate for Chief Justice, then giving the nod to the one guy that they all hated most. It was a Cuomo-esque move, but without any of the political capital, and instead of realizing that she’d misjudged the political environment, Hochul doubled down on the Cuomo impression and refused to withdraw the nominee.
Democrats on the state Senate’s Judiciary Committee promptly voted to reject Hector LaSalle, because while you can get away with a lot of hypocrisy as a New York Democrat, supporting an anti-abortion, anti-union judge is just a bridge too far. Especially after that same court, while run by conservatives, just this past summer handed the House of Representatives to the GOP.
Hochul was defiant after the humiliation and threatened to sue to force a full Senate vote on LaSalle’s nomination, which would allow Republicans to weigh in and have at least a modest shot at pushing him just over the line. This week, Republicans decided to take the initiative and file the lawsuit themselves. And now that New York is now looking at a long, exhausting court fight, with serious constitutional implications, Hochul has suddenly gone quiet, refusing to comment on the case or whether she’d join the GOP’s suit.
Whether she joins the suit is largely academic, because she could make the entire thing go away by simply pulling LaSalle’s nomination. So long as she sticks by her terrible choice, she’s not only enabling the lawsuit, she’s leaving New Yorkers without a functioning top court.
Let’s take a quick break for an appeal:
I’ve been really proud of the way we’ve been covering Ron DeSantis’s fascistic assault on freedom, decency, and children in Florida, and as he begins to ramp up his presidential campaign, we will ramp up our coverage to counter a mainstream media that accepts his abject cruelty as legitimate political strategy.
We’re also working to grow the same sort of coverage in blue states so that we can help ensure that progressive policy gets the push it needs to cross the finish line.
To do that, we need the resources to pay reporters and do all the other work that comes with running an independent outlet. If you want to help us grow and do this work, and you’ve got five bucks a month, we’d be very grateful for your subscription.
Now back to the newsletter…
North Carolina
Why are state courts so important? Look no further than North Carolina for the miserable answer.
This week, the state Supreme Court agreed to rehear two monumental voting rights cases that it had decided just last year. Why the immediate change of heart? The law hasn’t changed, and neither has the context in which it was decided. Instead, it’s the court that has changed, transforming from a 4-3 Democratic majority to a 5-2 Republican supermajority.
A high court essentially calling an immediate mulligan on its own decisions is largely unprecedented, but we’ve long since past the point of even playing along with the fiction that the judicial system is anything but an extension of ideology and politics. Unfortunately, Republicans are much more ruthless and disinterested in following any of the traditions that once lent the system some stability.
And so, though the Democratic court last year struck down the state’s tough voter ID law and the gerrymandered Congressional and legislative maps, it’s all but assured that the GOP court will suddenly decide that the Congressional districts are indeed legal. And once that happens, Democrats are likely going to struggle for a while.
For most of the 2010s, Republicans ran the state legislature with an iron fist thanks to the vicious gerrymander that they’d rigged for themselves in the 2011 redistricting cycle. Democrats sued over the terrible lines, and in 2018, the Democratic court tossed out some the worst state House districts.
Unfortunately, Democratic incumbents in the legislature took a terrible deal to protect their own asses when it came time to produce a new map in late 2018, and then fell short of taking back a majority in either chamber in 2020. When redistricting came along again in 2021, Democrats still had the governor’s mansion (and still do to this day), but Roy Cooper was powerless to veto yet another gerrymander due to lame duck law that the GOP passed in 2016 before he took office.
Without the power of the veto, the Congressional map hinged on the balance of the state Supreme Court. Now Republicans are likely going to win several extra seats in 2024 through a reversion to the old map. If Democrats can’t win back a chamber of the legislature in the next cycle, they may be locked out of power for a good while, no matter how much the demographics are changing in the state.
Quick Hits
Let’s end tonight’s newsletter with some good news, eh?
North Carolina: Things aren’t all so dire in the Tar Heel state — Medicaid expansion is back on the table, and it’s looking increasingly like Republicans are finally going to do the right thing after more than a decade of denying care to hundreds of thousands of working people. Not that they have much of a choice, as all of their rural hospitals are closing.
Wisconsin: Momentum grows for the liberal pro-choice judge in the upcoming must-win state Supreme Court election in Wisconsin. Emily’s List, the pro-choice group that backs some crappy establishment Dems but can bring a ton of money to a state-level candidate, is getting behind Janet Protasiewicz, whose victory would give liberals a 5-4 majority on the high court.
Should that happen, the state’s old abortion ban would be toast soon enough, and the chokehold gerrymander that the GOP has used to retain power in the legislature since 2011 would also not be long for the world. The top-two primary is on February 21st, and with two liberals and two conservatives running, it’s essential to consolidate support behind one candidate.
St. Petersburg, FL: Here’s a happy update on a story we’ve been following for more than a year: St. Petersburg is finally nearing the passage of a tenants’ bill of rights.
The changes would prohibit landlords from discriminating against prospective tenants who rely on government assistance that lasts less than one year. They would also prevent landlords from rejecting renters who rely on housing choice vouchers because it would increate their insurance costs. They also would give the government 10 days to complete inspections required for certain renters who receive public assistance, instead of the current five-day window.
It’s taken extreme pressure from the tenants union and hard work by Councilman Richie Floyd to get to this point, and not a moment too soon, as the Florida state legislature is getting closer to passing an awful housing bill. But more on that later — let’s end on a celebratory note. Activism works.
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