Political football
Ugh he ruins everything
Welcome to a Sunday night edition of Progress Report.
How was your July 4th weekend? It felt strange to celebrate the country at this moment in time, but I always see it as a way to honor the people who have given everything to bring the US closer to the lofty ideals it espouses. That and an excuse to eat hot dogs and stand on my roof to watch amateur fireworks explode over Harlem, the Bronx, and Queens.
Tonight is a delight for me personally, because we’re covering two of my favorite things: soccer (it’s political, don’t worry) and ballot initiatives.
Note: Paid subscriptions are down around Substack and it’s no different here. What we thought could save journalism is hitting a point of perilous point of stagnation. I need your help to keep Progress Report afloat right now, so if you have $5 a month, please consider subscribing to fuel our 100% independent, reader-funded work.
It’s not very often that my obsession with soccer intersects with this newsletter, but the news today that Donald Trump pressured FIFA into allowing US striker Folarin Balogun to play in Monday’s match despite the red card he received last week is a perfect encapsulation of his idiotic, short-sighted reign.
In isolation, Balogun’s availability is a boon to the US on the pitch, as he’s emerged as the team’s best forward and leads the squad with three goals in the tournament. But the way he became eligible also creates a huge distraction that threatens to overshadow what should be the biggest match in US Men’s history. It’s a no-win situation, even in the event of a win.
Let’s game it out: If Balogun plays and the US defeats Belgium, one of Europe’s best sides, to advance to the quarterfinals, it would be the most iconic victory in USMNT history — and forever tainted by its association with Trump’s blatant corruption.
And in the extremely unlikely event that US coach Mauricio Pochettino leaves Balogun out of the lineup in the interest of fairness, well, he’s going to draw the ire of both Trump supporters and many liberal American soccer fans, a decision that would probably cost him his job if the US loses.
Given America’s belligerence, you may not think that it’s a big deal if the US’s greatest victory is tainted in the eyes of the rest of the world. But here’s why it matters: lifting the trophy has never been the primary American goal of this World Cup; instead, it’s been a decade-in-the-making endeavor to integrate American soccer with the rest of the world and enrich a growing domestic league.
Things were going well, too, with all the nasty politics, worries about ICE at stadiums, and sky-high ticket prices fading into the background during what’s been an incredible tournament. But Trump, the US’s biggest liability with the rest of the world, just had to insert himself.
Maybe some other president’s involvement would be okay, if they were a respected figure who made a passionate public case and built international support for a reversal based on fairness and mutual respect. But instead, Trump went about it like a mob boss demanding a favor from a corrupt public official, reminding the world of the gross lead-up to the tournament, everything they hate about this country, and the absurd corruption that continues to blemish FIFA.
Like America’s CEOs, FIFA president Gianni Infantino has fallen over himself to flatter Trump, including handing him the organization’s inaugural “peace prize” weeks before the president attacked Venezuela and Iran. The soccer federation also rents an office in Trump Tower that it barely uses. The Balogun decision is another tribute to Trump, and it’s already triggered international outrage.
Belgium’s coach likened it April Fool’s Day. The Belgian football federation has called for an investigation. And UEFA, the governing body of European football, plans to echo that demand. Triggering Europeans probably delights Trump’s base, but this entire tournament has been focused on finally establishing the United States as a true soccer nation, and as much as that requires Americans to love the sport, it also mandates the rest of the world respecting the American game.
MLS is bringing in more European stars than ever, and the league is changing its entire structure to align its season with the continent’s various domestic leagues, all in hopes of appealing to the same fans who are now livid at FIFA’s decision. Instead of grudgingly respecting to the US team, Trump has given the world every reason to root against them and root instead for Belgium, which now has to throw days of preparation out the window.
Even Alexi Lalas, the Trump-supporting former USMNT star turned oft-criticized broadcaster, and a guy never known for his self-awareness, recognized the problem this creates.
"I will say this: It is now USA vs. the world after this decision," Lalas said during Fox’s pregame broadcast tonight, "because any support or a treaty or benefit of the doubt kind of just went out the window with this. Because we will be seen after this, and we're already starting to see, some of this as being given special treatment right now.”
Lalas wasn’t too worried about the international scorn, but he’s a myopic former player who is widely hated by the rest of the world. Trump, so eager to win and take credit for it, may have just sealed that fate for the national soccer program, wasting a full decade of hard work and graft by countless others.
The Headline: Ballot Box Blitz: Direct Democracy Fights Escalate Ahead of November
The Lede: Citizens groups across the country hit July signature deadlines this week in some of the year’s highest-stakes ballot fights, even as courts remain the real gatekeepers on several of them.
The Details:
Arkansas: It was good week for democracy in Arkansas. A federal judge ruled that most of the state’s new ballot petition-restriction laws — photo-ID and residency requirements for canvassers among them — are unconstitutional, a win for organizers even as the state appeals to the Eighth Circuit.
Separately, the coalition Protect AR Rights submitted over 108,000 signatures for a constitutional amendment that would make the citizen-initiative process itself a protected right, require notice before rejecting signatures, and cap the legislature’s ability to override citizen-passed laws. They need 90,704 valid signatures to qualify.
There was one hitch, unfortunately: For AR Kids — spot the naming trend? — fell short of the number of signatures it needed to collect to qualify its school voucher reform initiative. Arkansas has one of the biggest and messiest school voucher program, with no accountability for the schools that take public money. This initiative would have required “identical academic standards and identical standards for accreditation including assessments of students and schools based on such standards” for private and charter schools, which fail students fare more often than public schools.
Arizona: In much better education reform news, Save Our Schools Arizona and the state’s teacher’s union together submitted more than 420,000 signatures for the “Protect Education Act,” which would put significant restrictions on the state’s school voucher program, which has become a billion dollar slush fund for rich families. I’ve reported on the voucher scam in Arizona before, and last week, one of my colleagues at More Perfect Union delivered this report on what’s happening there:
In an ideal world, the activists and teachers behind this campaign would be able to fully eradicate the program, but this is a good start: the initiative would create a $150,000 income cap and a requirement that leftover voucher funds return to the state’s general fund. A rival school-choice group, the DeVos-funded American Federation for Children, has already vowed to challenge the signatures in court. With 150,000 more signatures than necessary, good luck to them.
Idaho: Organizers with a group called Idahoans United for Women and Families turned in nearly 110,000 signatures to qualify a measure ending Idaho’s near-total abortion ban for the November ballot, a proposal that would legalize abortion until fetal viability or in medical emergencies.
Idaho, despite being as dark red as it gets, has seen a number of progressive ballot initiatives pass in recent years, including the landmark 2018 campaign that expanded Medicaid. Unfortunately, the conservative legislature just implemented strict work requirements and reimbursement reductions that will hinder the program, so their threats are not hollow.
Nebraska: The coalition Respect Nebraska Voters submitted more than 186,500 signatures for a constitutional amendment that would raise the threshold for lawmakers to alter voter-passed laws from a 2/3rds vote to 4/5ths.
Sponsors say it’s needed because state legislators have repeatedly moved in 2025 and 2026 to weaken or unwind voter-approved measures like minimum wage increases, paid sick leave, payday-lending caps, and medical marijuana legalization. The rollback minimum wage increase was especially egregious because it was a Democratic-aligned lawmaker who pushed the bill, which lowers the bar for paying teenagers, in service of her family’s supermarket chain.
Maine: Something to look forward to: A coalition called Health Care For All Maine relaunched its campaign for a ballot initiative that would direct lawmakers to finally produce and implement a single payer healthcare system for every resident by 2028. It’s purposely light on specifics, leaving the particulars to lawmakers and experts (probably the best choice with something as complicated as a single payer healthcare system).
Volunteers collected over 20,000 signatures at primary polling sites toward the roughly 67,700 needed for the 2027 ballot.
And in more immediate news, the state Supreme Court heard arguments over whether an anti-trans high school sports referendum can qualify for November after election officials invalidated over 12,000 signatures and left the campaign about 500 signatures short. The disqualification came as something of a surprise, as Secretary of State Shenna Bellows originally said that they would not be tossing the issue off the ballot, but allegations of fraud made it impossible to avoid taking action.
Washington: Conservative activists submitted more than half a million signatures to qualify a ballot initiative that would repeal the state’s new millionaire tax, but passing is going to be a very different story.
Washington has long gone without a state income tax, the result of a conservative state Supreme Court decision nearly a century ago. It took years and years of effort, but progressives were finally able to pass a 9.9% tax on incomes above a million dollars this year, a stunning reversal that reflected the state’s faltering finances and the lack of money coming from the federal government.
One of the state’s richest men, Brian Heywood, finances most of the conservative ballot initiative campaigns in Washington through his group Let’s Go Washington. It is the primary sponsor of the wealth tax repeal, which has a big mountain to climb if it’s going to pass: polling from Democratic firm GBAO shows the repeal losing by 19 points, 38% to 57%. Numbers like these, via The Guardian, help explain why a state that frequently rejected income taxes is now firmly in favor of the wealth tax:
According to the Economic Opportunity Institute, a Seattle-based non-profit, the bottom 20% of state households pay 13.8% of their income in state and local taxes, the middle 20% pay 10.9%, and the wealthiest 1% pay just 4.1%.
The tax doesn’t go into effect until 2028, and it’s hard to see it losing this year given the populist anger and blue wave incoming.
Wait, Before You Leave!
Progress Report has raised over $7 million dollars for progressive candidates and causes, breaks national stories about corrupt politicians, and delivers incisive analysis, and goes deep into the grassroots.
None of the money we’ve raised for candidates and causes goes to producing this newsletter or all of the related projects we put out. In fact, it costs me money to do this. So, I need your help.
For just $5 a month, you can buy a premium subscription that includes:
Premium member-only newsletters with original reporting
Financing new projects and paying new reporters
Access to upcoming chats and live notes
You can also make a one-time donation to Progress Report’s GoFundMe campaign!
The real irony of the Balogun situation is that if Trump's desire to end birthright citizenship had come to fruition, Balogun would have lost his citizenship and been incarcerated or deported.
He does always ruin everything! The World Cup has become the bright light I didn’t know we needed. It’s been so nice focusing on it with all of my friends and family, both international and domestic, and of course, he has to meddle. Ugh, so exhausting, but thank you for this column specifically so I can show it to my American friends/family who don’t understand. And those matches yesterday— so exciting— and I’m so tired today— haha!