The end of Teflon Don — and what's next

The message is as important as the actual punishment

Welcome to a special Thursday night edition of Progress Report.

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The end of Teflon Don and what comes next

Former President Donald Trump was convicted of falsifying business records to pay hush money to a porn star on the eve of the 2016 election, capping a historic five-week trial in Lower Manhattan. Found guilty of all 34 charges against him, Trump faces up to four years in prison when he’s sentenced in July.

Here are some thoughts on what just happened and what comes next:

1️⃣ In making Trump the first former president to be convicted of a felony, a jury of 12 random New Yorkers became the first people to ever hold Trump accountable for any of his manifold crimes, misdeeds, swindles, or scams.

2️⃣ The dozen Manhattanites also showed far more spine than US Attorney General Merrick Garland, whose extreme reticence to prosecute Trump’s involvement in the Jan. 6 insurrection rendered it likely that this will be the only trial that Trump faces before Election Day.

3️⃣ It’s sort of perfect that for all of the crimes and improprieties that Trump committed in the White House, including orchestrating a violent attempt to overthrow the United States government, it’s a tabloid scandal from years earlier that finally caught up with him. Trump has received almost total immunity for his vast corruption and attempts to subvert American democracy, but being a total scumbag and sleaze is what could wind up costing him complete control over the US government.

Should this be what prevents him from returning to the White House? Probably not! But objectively speaking, he broke the law, and that requires consequences.

4️⃣ Though speculation immediately turned to the political impact of the verdict, it is impossible to predict with any degree of accuracy how such a volatile man and movement will react in the days and months to come. Whereas previous studies suggested that a guilty verdict may break some Republicans’ resolve around Trump, a new Marist poll found that a conviction would make 26% of Republicans more likely to vote for him and just 3% less inclined to do so. Independents were split on the issue.

I’m not banking on these numbers all that much — are 8% of Democrats really more likely to vote for Trump after this? — but if nothing else they indicate just how much the public already has their minds made up about him.

5️⃣ Taking a step back, it feels astounding that we’re discussing the ongoing electoral prospects of a guy who was convicted of felony involving bribing a porn star to stay quiet about their unsatisfying night together. But it also isn’t at all surprising, because a vast majority of conservatives who continue to support Trump with a near-religious fervor simply think he’s an innocent man.

The media outlets they consume and experts and influencers they trust have been conditioning them for years to believe that their big former president is a persecuted, almost Christ-like figure who did nothing wrong and was taken down by a vast liberal conspiracy. Republican lawmakers, from the Speaker of the House to governors from states big and small, have all joined in on the ruse, turning up the noise in the far-right echo chamber.

6️⃣ Trump’s greatest fortune is that he is still running against Joe Biden, who is historically unpopular and is currently overseeing a disastrous war in the Middle East. There’s a reason why Democratic Senate candidates are winning their elections while Biden flails.

7️⃣ The practicalities of his probation and the legal limitations placed upon Trump could prove to be his undoing. If nothing else, he is no longer totally teflon, and there is no longer the sense that he just can’t be held accountable. In reality, he’s just a gassy old pervert with anger issues, just like most politicians.

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