Will Gerrymandering Destroy Democrats Again? It Depends...
Plus, Christmas fun!
Welcome to a big Sunday edition of Progressives Everywhere!
We’ve got a whole lot on tap for you today, including:
Some on-the-ground updates about the runoff elections in Georgia
A look at critical upcoming redistricting battles that could well determine the future of American democracy
Plenty of developing news.
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Georgia Runoff Gets More Intense (and Fun!)
As we’ve seen over the past few weeks, the only real chance to effect any sort of significant and lasting change over the next two years rides on the special Senate runoff elections in Georgia. Mitch McConnell, a melting Erlking goblin, is more than happy to let tens of millions of Americans suffer, starve, and die in order to ensure that Republicans regain the power to proactively cause more Americans to suffer, starve, and die.
The growing Republican civil war could hurt Sens. Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue at the ballot box. Donald Trump’s egregiously stupid claims of voter fraud have some members of the party questioning the electoral system, while some seething MAGA diehards want to bring down the entire Republican Party. The fact that GOP-controlled Georgia Supreme Court just tossed out Trump’s latest lawsuit will only make things uglier.
Still, as we learned last month, we can’t take anything for granted. Republicans are more likely to turn out regardless of their anger with Gov. Brian Kemp (lol schadenfreude) and the rest of the state party. It means that Democrats and the vital organizing groups who helped deliver the state to Biden need to be firing on all cylinders once again. Thankfully, after some mushy messages, they’re starting to take my advice and campaign directly on stimulus checks:
Early voting in the state starts on Monday, so to get a sense of where the grassroots organizations are in their GOTV work, I reached out to Nabilah Islam, the activist and co-founder of Save our Senate, a non-profit based in Gwinnett County (I interviewed her about it a few weeks ago). It’s the second biggest county in the state and has become such a Democratic stronghold that maximizing its turnout is absolutely essential. Good news: They’re on top of it, knocking on doors and phonebanking.
“Canvassing has been going great — since our launch this past week, we're seeing a 91% support score and commit to vote score among the voters we're talking to as a result of our conversations with them,” Islam told me last night. “That's an incredible rate considering that Save Our Senate's mission is to turn out low-propensity voters, which we define as voters of color who have missed either one or two of the past three general elections (2016, 2018 or 2020). These are not voters who would normally vote in a runoff election, but the rates we're seeing point to massive levels of voter awareness, enthusiasm, and the impact of our work.”
While the numbers are very encouraging, the group’s organizers aren’t taking anything for granted. First, after the initial in-person connection, they’re sending reminders to these voters via text message. They’re also doubling down on relational organizing, sending additional texts to those who agreed to serve as “vote triplers,” a term for someone who engages with at least three people in their personal networks about the election.
Save Our Senate is encouraging all voters to either vote early in-person or send in a ballot by mail, both to ensure their votes get counted and to avoid big crowds (or crowds altogether). And as we saw last month, piling up those early votes can go a long way toward winning a close election in a swing state.
If you want to help Save our Senate, other crucial Georgia activist nonprofits, and both Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, you can DONATE here.
Redistricting and 2021 Gerrymandering
Over the last two weeks, Republicans have dropped all pretense of caring about American democracy. Over 100 Republican members of Congress signed an absurd and seditious letter asking the Supreme Court to install Donald Trump for a second term as president. In Pennsylvania, over 60 state lawmakers signed a letter requesting the court throw out their own constituents’ votes and give Trump their electoral votes. In Georgia, the state Speaker of the House and other GOP lawmakers suggested installing more unprecedented voter suppression tactics in a state that has already purged nearly one million voter registrations over the last half-decade.
Whether they’re Trump toadies or just afraid of his MAGA mob, these Republicans were willing to sign on to these error-riddled lunatic letters and make such public pronouncements because they do not fear their own voters. It’s not that they’re actually popular — almost all of them benefit from egregious gerrymanders that cancel democracy and shield public officials from any and all accountability.
We went hard at flipping state legislatures this year in large part because states will redraw their maps in 2021 (assuming the census isn’t revisited). Unfortunately, Democrats fell well short of their goals down-ballot, so they won’t control the process in any significant swing states. On the bright side, though, victories in state Supreme Court races and successful ballot initiatives means that they’re in a much better position in several states than they were the last time around.
Here’s a look at the redistricting situation in the biggest swing states:
Pennsylvania:
Though Democrats actually lost further ground in the State House and made no net progress in the State Senate, things are looking far better than in 2011.
Back then, Republicans controlled not only the legislature but also the governor’s office and the state Supreme Court. Dems now have the latter two, with control of the court especially important. As the Philadelphia Inquirer points out, the state Supreme Court, which Dems hold 5-2, is responsible for choosing the tie-breaking member of the five-person map-drawing committee if the parties’ four legislative leaders cannot choose one themselves.
That incentivizes the Republicans in the legislature to agree to someone relatively nonpartisan, because otherwise, they just may wind up with a Democrat making the tie-breaking calls. As we’ve seen, the liberals on the Supreme Court are not afraid to get in the thick of redistricting — they overturned the GOP’s congressional maps in 2018, which wound up shifting four suburban seats to Democrats.
Thankfully, it’s unlikely that the Court will have to step in on those congressional districts again, as Gov. Tom Wolf can veto any ridiculous Republican-drawn maps this time around.
Michigan:
Voters in the Wolverine State passed a slew of progressive ballot initiatives in 2018, including an independent redistricting process that promises to rectify the very Republican-gerrymandered map established in 2010 by a GOP trifecta.
The new legislative lines will be drawn by a group of four Republicans, four Democrats, and five independents, who were chosen in August from over 9,000 Michiganders who applied for the commission online. The 13 members have little capsule bios you can read over at the Detroit Free Press. If there’s one concern I have, it’s that four of the five independents are men and four of them are white (including one white woman). Statistically speaking, that does not necessarily portend well for Democrats.
Unlike Pennsylvania, the state Supreme Court in Michigan doesn’t have any direct jurisdiction over the redistricting process, but it can certainly hear cases challenging district lines. And thankfully, while Democrats didn’t flip either branch of the legislature (due to gerrymandering!), they did take back the Supreme Court, giving them insurance against any shady independents colluding with Republicans.
Ohio:
Right now, Ohio is by far one of the most egregiously gerrymandered states in the country, to the point that Democrats couldn’t unseat Republican legislators even amid a record-setting corruption case that engulfed half the GOP State House. Republicans in Congress, meanwhile, have a 12-4 advantage in the traditional swing state.
Awful gerrymanders are how people like sexual abuse enables like Jim Jordan stay in office — just look at his district:
Things will get a little bit better in 2021 thanks to modest reforms passed by voters and lawmakers in the state.
The legislature gets the first crack at drawing new district lines, but there are limits on the packing and cracking tactics they’ve used in the past. Ohio has 88 counties and 65 of them cannot be split into different districts. Another 18 of the counties can only be broken once, while the five biggest counties can only be split a maximum of two times.
Further, the maps have to be approved by a 60% vote in the legislature, and while Republicans have that supermajority, they also have to get at least 50% of Democratic votes to affirm the districts. If they can’t, the redistricting will then go to a new commission, which consists of the governor, state auditor, secretary of state and four people appointed by legislative leaders. If that fails, it goes back to the legislature, which can either pass maps with 1/3 of the minority voting for them or a four-year map that has only majority party support.
It’s complicated, right? At least the legislative maps will be decided by the redistricting commission alone.
It’s also notable that Ohio Democrats picked up a seat in the state Supreme Court, cutting Republicans’ advantage to 4-3. That gives them a better chance of winning a challenge to awful maps (they won in federal court last year but the Supreme Court tossed it out).
Arizona:
Arizona has had an independent redistricting commission for the last 20 years. The commission is made up of two Democrats, two Republicans, and one independent member who is chosen in a dizzying process that involves vetting by the state Supreme Court, narrowing down by the state legislative leaders, and then a final decision made by the four commissioners.
That final member serves as the chair of the committee, so it’s a big deal. And right now, Democrats are not happy with several of the options for that final member given to them by the legislature. Unfortunately, the state Supreme Court ruled against their complaints, so we’ll have to keep an eye on what happens here.
North Carolina:
Alas, the fact that Democrats control most statewide offices is irrelevant in North Carolina, where the legislature (still controlled by the GOP) makes the maps. On the bright side, the state Supreme Court can invalidate districts and send them back to the legislature for new maps. The Democrats control that court and did exactly that in 2018, which gave the party two new congressional seats this year.
Unfortunately, Democrats lost two state Supreme Court seats in November (including a heartbreaking chief justice race), so their advantage is down to just 4-3. With more seats on the line in 2022, they’ll have to be careful.
A Quick Pause Before We Continue…
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Quibis
The Supreme Court ruled in favor of states’ rights to regulate pharmacy benefits managers, the often-crooked group of middlemen who like to skim money from patients and plan-holders in cahoots with pharmaceutical companies.
In Wisconsin, the state Supreme Court heard another malarkey Trump lawsuit seeking to overturn the results of November’s election. It’s technically a nonpartisan court, but Republican-leaners control the court 4-3. Alarmingly, three of those Republicans seem pretty enthusiastic about Trump’s laughable lawsuit. Just one conservative, Justice Brian Hagedorn, looks likely to rule against it.
Of course Mitch McConnell seems OK with replenishing the PPP — the first two rounds were gobbled up by big businesses. In fact, fast-food franchises alone took in about $1 billion, including individual sums that far exceeded the $10 million limit.
Republicans are terrorists.
And lots of Democrats suck, too. Take Rep. Richard Neal, Wall Street’s favorite Democrat, who just kneecapped a more progressive deal to end surprise medical billing in order to pass the plan preferred by pharmaceutical companies. Neal, if you'll remember, takes gobs of money from pharmaceutical lobbyists and is still in office because he authorized a horrible homophobic attack on progressive challenger Mayor Alex Morse.
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